Good, this gives a time frame for the system release and gives time for Nintendo to have a satisfactory launch lineup.

Is anyone surprised?

I'm not surprised, but goddamn it, if this pans out, I'll be disappointed.

I would've expected a bitch-fest by now. Who knows, I might just get it

I'd like to see a fall release, like the N64. There's enough time for the early adopters to get one, and enough time to meet demand for the holidays. Also, they can space out a few game releases.

Its not just Nintendo who was just throwing out vauge dates. I highly doubt the PS3 will make a spring release. It seems there's too much internal struggle going for them to get their stuff together in a relatively short time. But who knows, maybe they'll press foward anyway, and the people will love it...

One thing's for sure: Nintendo can't really afford to launch dead last. They've been marginalized as is with the 'Cube. While publishers start with a clean slate, the public won't.

September/October worldwide release, i've felt it since E3.

I'd deffinately prefer a summer release so as to not clash with the new school year. My parents woud be on me pretty hard if I got a new system in the fall. Although, if it comes out after mid-semester, then I should be fine.

a Christmas release a good idea, but it might be nice to just have a summer release and then a good holiday line-up.

Don't worry, Ian will come, and then it'll be right as rain.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

The way I see it is there are pros and cons in waiting. Off the top of my head;

Pros of releasing later/last:

-Know what you're up against since the compitition has already shown everything

-Both more and better polished release lineup

-Spacing yourself from the competing console releases will give consumers more time to gather more $ (maybe...)

-According to their "AND" stratagy/philosophy, releasing after the other consoles shouldn't make much difference as they will buy a competing console AND the Revolution

-A holiday release could definately up the launch numbers, especially if the Revolution appeals as an impulse buy with it's lower price point and greater accessablility to various types of gamers (and "non-gamers")

-the possiblity as being seen as the best choice since it was released last (hence it is the most "next gen")


Cons of releasing later/last:

-the market will already have 2 more-or-less established next-gen consoles on the market, with the Xbox 360 being around a year old already

-there is a good chance that consumers who only choose one console have already made their purchase and will not be willing to spend more on another console

-some die hard Nintendo fans may switch camps as they grow tired of waiting and as they see what the other consoles have to offer (Ian may discuss how this is another thing they could be doing to screw us big Nintendo fans over by making us wait because they only care about the consumers that aren't fans (or even current gamers) and, therefore, wouldn't care when it is released)

-Nintendo's faultering image and popularity will be damaged even more as time goes on...something that won't make consumers want to wait for the Revolution or even buy it in addition to a console they have already bought

-the greater possibility that by the time it's released competing consoles will have already more-or-less copied their unique controller in one way or another



That's all I can think of for now. I'm sure there is a ton more to consider.

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-some die hard Nintendo fans may switch camps as they grow tired of waiting and as they see what the other consoles have to offer (Ian may discuss how this is another thing they could be doing to screw us big Nintendo fans over by making us wait because they only care about the consumers that aren't fans (or even current gamers) and, therefore, wouldn't care when it is released)

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"Revolution in"

GET IN OR GET OUT

PLAY IT LOUD

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Originally posted by: Professional 666
PLAY IT LOUD

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I've never understood the assumption that the Revolution would launch in the spring/summer of next year... Honestly the console is just being introduced to many developers now, with such a different set up would you really expect there to be ANY third party support (outside of some sloppy ports or cash in titles) at launch with that time frame? By E3 we should be seeing some games that are rather far along from Nintendo, and hopefully some progressing efforts from 3rd parties. That'll start up the mainstream hype, while Zelda plays stop gap (it's delay should have been the biggest hint that the Revolution would not be in our hands come May) till the Revolution is ready to launch in the fall/early winter.

I'd rather wait a few extra months and get a solid launch line up with polished games then suffer through another Gamecube-esque launch (or DS launch for that matter). Coming out of the gate STRONG is vital to the success of this console. Nintendo has a lot of naysayers to win over, and a half assed launch would practically bury the console before it even got a chance to establish itself.

Another positive that I don't see mentioned here, is the longer Nintendo waits the cheaper the technology will be. Granted they can't wait forever, but even a few month delay can mean cheaper and more powerful technology.

Nothing surprising about this. I don't think Nintendo has ever said anything official (unless they said it while I was on vacation) so I don't think this really counts as a delay. I don't think Sony will launch outside of Japan before E3, either.

I think Nintendo needs to be aggressive about getting this system out in a "timely fashion", though. The second half isn't that big of a deal, but I think the system needs to be available in all territories before the end of the year. I agree that a fall release (i.e. September rather than November) would be nice. Nintendo has started to differentiate Rev from the competition, but I think it would still be a huge benefit for them to show everyone - gamers, developers, and retailers - that it's serious about competing. No matter how different Rev is, I believe it is still competing for a lot of the same money as Sony and MS.

Maybe people aren't giving the 360 enough credit. A year head start seems like a pretty big risk even if you're not in in "direct competition". Perhaps...

Actually its quite possible that even with Nintendo launching in the second half of 2006, it'll still beat the PS3 to launch, there has been some speculation on a early 2007 launch for the PS3

You mean I'm not the only one who occasionally calls the power line? (although it's been awhile since I called...)

"Ian may discuss how this is another thing they could be doing to screw us big Nintendo fans over by making us wait because they only care about the consumers that aren't fans (or even current gamers) and, therefore, wouldn't care when it is released"

No I wouldn't. I agree that they run the risk of having fans jump ship but I doubt they're doing any of this intentionally. I think Nintendo miscalculated something. Either they miscalculated the PS3 launch date, grossly underestimated how much time it would take to get things ready, or they grossly overestimated their own worth and think they can get away with launching last.

I think that launching last is stupid. They're the last place console so people aren't going to wait for them. Launching first would make the most sense so as to establish a stronger foothold when the other much MUCH more anticipated consoles launch. They also are very likely going to release the weakest hardware and it's pretty lame to release the weakest hardware last. Usually people assume the newer the console is the better the hardware is. But then I've never liked this non-gamer strategy either and that's a far bigger risk than launching last. The Rev's a big gamble no matter how you look at it.

They dillydallied way too much with the Rev design. By this years's E3 they should have had some sort of tech demo and the controller and a list of third parties on board. The controller design and courting third parties should have been done a LONG time ago. If they weren't ready for E3, fair enough. I'd rather they wait until they are ready BUT they SHOULD have been ready by then.

I agree that an advantage of launching last is that they could have a better launch lineup. They have to make a good first impression. Launching a few months before the PS3 isn't going to mean squat if the lineup is the sh!ts by the time the PS3 does launch. There's no point launching early if you're not going to launch right. I think having the absolute mother of killer apps at launch is a requirement for the Rev's success. Otherwise they've got a hard sell. Even with a great launch lineup they've got to compete with what will at that point be a year's worth of X360 games. There can be no room for error. The flagship title has to be unanimously praised. Something wishy-washy like Luigi's Mansion where some people like it and some don't would be a total disaster. This remote stuff actually better be the real deal and not just some sparkling innovation to attract attention. Man, I wish Nintendo would just show us a game. That would make it so much easier to feel confortable with the Rev design.

"Karl says: I hope Nintendo's learned from their experience with the DS that if you give the public a less-than-quality starting roster, there'll be quite a backlash."

I wonder about this. The DS has turned out to be quite successful. If anything it might give Nintendo the wrong message: that they can have an incredibly weakass launch and get away with it. What backlash was there really? Me b!tching on the forum isn't backlash to Nintendo. To Nintendo backlash is sh!tty sales which they didn't get. They got away with it because the DS is a portable and because of Nintendo's strong portable reputation people gave them some slack. Plus the PSP turned out to be a total dud glorified movie player. Plus they launched first and had a few months with no competition. They got REAL lucky with the DS and they absolutely cannot think the same thing could happen with the Rev because it won't. They have a DSish launch for the Rev and by March 2007 the thing will be in discount bins.

I agree with Ian on DS, it sold very well in spite of the odds, and that is what Nintendo would most likely notice. Having said that, I don't think Nintendo is ignorant of the fact that it has more power in the handheld market than in the home console market. I think that's exactly why Nintendo launched DS so early, it knew it could get away with it and get a head-start on Sony.

With the Rev, that kind of strategy would be a very bad idea, so I agree that Nintendo should aim for quality rather than an early launch, but of course both would be better. Revolution will need a rock-solid game that proves the new concept, like Super Mario 64 did for the N64. Revolution needs needs to hit people with it's full potential right from day one. The DS failed at this (at least for me) because it didn't have a game of Super Mario 64s calibre to impress me. I bought the system with Wario Ware and Feel the Magic which are both good games and both made full use of the features, but they didn't provide a "complete" experience - you could play them and still not know if the touch screen was good for anything more than mini-games. Metroid Prime Hunters: First Hunt was encouraging in this respect, but it was still just a short demo.

So yeah, it would be better to have a great launch lineup in November than to launch in April with crud, but I hope Nintendo is putting an effort in to do better than November, and I feel that it should have been ready to launch sooner in the first place.

Talking about that, I dont think Nintendo doesnt know that their stand in the protable market is a lot more different than their stance in the home console market, they'll be more agressive with this one, Im sure.

The really good thing about launching last is they can see how the 360 does, and seeing if the gaming audience is really ok with just graphical improvements for a very huge price, that way the can predict how the ps3 and rev will perform an change strategies accordingly.

I suspect the 360 will be spun as a hit no matter how many consoles they sell (I've seen talk of shortages already)

It may take a few months to get a feel for how well 360 is doing, plus I don't think they will have any software droughts, if they have a lean month ahead, MS will pass out a money hat to some PC game manufacturer to port his title to the 360.

Also, who else thinks the Revolution will have a simultaneous Japan/US launch? or at least very close.

"who else thinks the Revolution will have a simultaneous Japan/US launch?"

Maybe. They sort of did that with the DS. But that was a problem because a lot of games that should have been ready for the North American launch weren't. I think Nintendo should try to have a good Japanese launch and a good North American launch and space the launches according to how well they can achieve that goal.

Definitely, I can't help but feel that Microsoft's position is getting stronger and stronger. I really do get the sense that they're going to "win" this gen.

But aside from that, A big factor in how the rev launch date plays out is when the PS3 launches. Worse case scenario is if PS3 launches spring, and rev launches fall 06. This would mean that Nintendo sortof couldn't even make their publicly stated goal of "launching at the same time as our competition." But if the PS3 launches at the same time as the Rev, or even after the Rev, then Nintendo will actually come out ok in comparison.

Of course, the X360 will be going gangbusters. All they have to do is time the Halo 3 release with the launch of their competitors and they're gonna be flying high. Even with the delays, you know that Microsoft will delay Halo 3 just so that it can be released when a competitor launches.

Anyways, Nintendo launching "not first" isn't materially crippling if they really intend to be the "second" console in every gamers room. There's still the matter of proving that they're worth a "second console" buy, but since Nintendo's already assuming that hardcore gamers have the X360 or PS3, then a later launch doesn't amterially damage that goal.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane

They have a DSish launch for the Rev and by March 2007 the thing will be in discount bins.

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Eh- the only thing that matters is the holidays. All Revolution launching last means is that it'll be the freshest, latest greatest thing on people's minds when they're doing their holiday shopping.

With that said - there's no gaurantee that the REV will launch last. Remember that it could still launch in summer (July and August are summer months, you know) and the PS3 could still launch later (there's actually a rumor that it'll be delayed into 2007).

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Originally posted by: IaSane
They got REAL lucky with the DS and they absolutely cannot think the same thing could happen with the Rev because it won't.

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See, now, I think the only reason you say that is because you aren't satisfied with the DS personally.

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Originally posted by: Caillan

I think he's saying that because even though Sony screwed up, they now have a portion of the handheld market which they didn't before. A portion which Nintendo has lost.

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Let's face it: The DS launch was extremely weak. I'd rather wait for quality games then have crap right now. (I'm looking at you, EA!)

That said, the casual gamer market just doesn't give a scheisse about Nintendo anymore. Nintendo needs to show everybody that this controller is worth waiting for. And they've done a very bad job of it so far. They've only shown demos of it in use to a select portion of the media. Even I - Somebody who has never owned a console not made by Nintendo - am considering buying an X360 (If PD0 is any good).

It's just a really bad situation that Nintendo is in. And they need to get out of it. How? Simple. Prove to everybody that this controller will not be a "g-i-m-m-i-c-k" (to quote PSP fanboys), but something amazing. Something that'll make you wonder how you ever lived without it. And the best way to do that would be to make tech demos for the public to watch. Hell, I'd be happy just watching Metroid Prime Echoes be played with the controller, frankly.

"I don't see the Ds's success luck - I see it as Nintendo looking at Sony's strategy with the PSP, and coming up with a good strategy to counter, and having that strategy work. "

What strategy was this? Having only a PORT as the sole first party launch game? Having less games several months in than the PSP had AT LAUNCH? The first six months or so of the DS were the absolute SH!TS. Easily the worst six months for a new Nintendo system ever with the exception of the Virtual Boy. That's not a strategy, that's a fluke. They have since deserved their lead but those first six months were scary. That "strategy" would never work for the Rev. They're on thin ice in the console market and can't afford to have a weak launch or to have games people have to "get" in order to like. There has to be no excuses or apologies. It has to seem almost perfect.

It's doable if they've had something really special planned for the remote from the get-go. If it's a "real" idea and not just some last minute "we need to be innovative, think of something" idea then they should be fine.

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Originally posted by: Stu L Tissimus
Let's face it: The DS launch was extremely weak. I'd rather wait for quality games then have crap right now. (I'm looking at you, EA!)

That said, the casual gamer market just doesn't give a scheisse about Nintendo anymore. Nintendo needs to show everybody that this controller is worth waiting for. And they've done a very bad job of it so far. They've only shown demos of it in use to a select portion of the media. Even I - Somebody who has never owned a console not made by Nintendo - am considering buying an X360 (If PD0 is any good).

It's just a really bad situation that Nintendo is in. And they need to get out of it. How? Simple. Prove to everybody that this controller will not be a "g-i-m-m-i-c-k" (to quote PSP fanboys), but something amazing. Something that'll make you wonder how you ever lived without it. And the best way to do that would be to make tech demos for the public to watch. Hell, I'd be happy just watching Metroid Prime Echoes be played with the controller, frankly.

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
What strategy was this? Having only a PORT as the sole first party launch game? Having less games several months in than the PSP had AT LAUNCH? The first six months or so of the DS were the absolute SH!TS. Easily the worst six months for a new Nintendo system ever with the exception of the Virtual Boy. That's not a strategy, that's a fluke. They have since deserved their lead but those first six months were scary. That "strategy" would never work for the Rev. They're on thin ice in the console market and can't afford to have a weak launch or to have games people have to "get" in order to like. There has to be no excuses or apologies. It has to seem almost perfect.

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What sorta worked for PS2, sorta worked for DS.

"What sorta worked for PS2, sorta worked for DS."

By the time the Cube and Xbox came out the PS2 had major games like Gran Turismo 3, Devil May Cry and Metal Gear Solid 2 (and of course GTA3 though no one really knew how big of a hit that would end up being). So yeah they launched earlier but they had some really major titles released in time to combat the competition and they had more games released than both consoles combined. The DS had less games in total than the whole PSP launch and they didn't have any of their killer games released by then. They basically had the same crummy launch lineup and WarioWare Touched. That's not even close to the PS2 lineup in late 2001. It was a fluke. They should have got creamed but didn't because Sony overcharged and concentrated too much on movies. Maybe launching early was their strategy but the execution of it was HORRIBLE and they would be murdered if they did something like that with the Rev.

Plus it's so obvious that there was initially no plans from NCL for the DS to launch in North America in 2004 because the lineup was absolutely horrible. NOA rushed the thing to release to get it out for Christmas. The "strategy" was more of a backpeddle to compensate for NCL living in a box and completely ignoring North America in their plans.

Ian, the DS wasn't spectacular to start because it didn't need to be. They needed to focus on fighting the PSP in Japan, not in the states where it wasn't even out yet. DS was selling well without anything other than a port. Now they have tons of quality games out and will continue to be several steps ahead of the PSP. No reason to complain, it wasn't a fluke that DS succeeded. It was cool enough on its own to sell. Lots of gamers really loved the mini-games on Mario (I know my mother has played that more than any other game I've gotten, Meteos and such are too intense for her). DS has succeeded and that's all there is to it. Has-beens are irrelevant, because what has happened won't change.

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
"What sorta worked for PS2, sorta worked for DS."

By the time the Cube and Xbox came out the PS2 had major games like Gran Turismo 3, Devil May Cry and Metal Gear Solid 2 (and of course GTA3 though no one really knew how big of a hit that would end up being). So yeah they launched earlier but they had some really major titles released in time to combat the competition and they had more games released than both consoles combined. The DS had less games in total than the whole PSP launch and they didn't have any of their killer games released by then. They basically had the same crummy launch lineup and WarioWare Touched. That's not even close to the PS2 lineup in late 2001. It was a fluke. They should have got creamed but didn't because Sony overcharged and concentrated too much on movies. Maybe launching early was their strategy but the execution of it was HORRIBLE and they would be murdered if they did something like that with the Rev.

Plus it's so obvious that there was initially no plans from NCL for the DS to launch in North America in 2004 because the lineup was absolutely horrible. NOA rushed the thing to release to get it out for Christmas. The "strategy" was more of a backpeddle to compensate for NCL living in a box and completely ignoring North America in their plans.

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"Yet you insist on saying it was a fluke, when what happened is exactly what they attempted to make happen."

Just because the end result was the same doesn't mean it was a good plan. Sometimes sh!tty plans work out due to good luck just like how sometimes great plans fail because of bad luck.

Regardless of what was planned and what wasn't and whether or not it worked the DS launch "strategy" WILL NOT work for the Rev. No way could a last place console succeed with a sh!tty launch followed by a big game drought. So it's important that Nintendo knows that and doesn't think they can do the same thing and have it work.

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
"Yet you insist on saying it was a fluke, when what happened is exactly what they attempted to make happen."

Just because the end result was the same doesn't mean it was a good plan. Sometimes sh!tty plans work out due to good luck just like how sometimes great plans fail because of bad luck.

Regardless of what was planned and what wasn't and whether or not it worked the DS launch "strategy" WILL NOT work for the Rev. No way could a last place console succeed with a sh!tty launch followed by a big game drought. So it's important that Nintendo knows that and doesn't think they can do the same thing and have it work.

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
"Yet you insist on saying it was a fluke, when what happened is exactly what they attempted to make happen."

Just because the end result was the same doesn't mean it was a good plan. Sometimes sh!tty plans work out due to good luck just like how sometimes great plans fail because of bad luck.

Regardless of what was planned and what wasn't and whether or not it worked the DS launch "strategy" WILL NOT work for the Rev. No way could a last place console succeed with a sh!tty launch followed by a big game drought. So it's important that Nintendo knows that and doesn't think they can do the same thing and have it work.

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Well as far as the DS vs. PSP goes, the DS launching first was necessary, whether or not it had a great lineup, because Nintendo was defending its own territory, it needed to take as much wind out of the PSP as early as possible, the DS was also able to sell on name and GBA backlibrary, so launching even with a bad lineup was the right choice, and now its looking more and more likely that the PSP will end up as a movie player with gaming capabilities at best and at worst get phased out entirely by devices like the Ipod video, but its very unlikely it'll be able to take the handheld gaming crown from Nintendo (its cost to develop and its game sales are eventually going to result in more and more devs abandoning it).

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
The first six months or so of the DS were the absolute SH!TS. Easily the worst six months for a new Nintendo system ever with the exception of the Virtual Boy.

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Just because the end result was the same doesn't mean it was a good plan. Sometimes sh!tty plans work out due to good luck just like how sometimes great plans fail because of bad luck.

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They should have got creamed but didn't because Sony overcharged and concentrated too much on movies.

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Maybe launching early was their strategy but the execution of it was HORRIBLE and they would be murdered if they did something like that with the Rev.

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