Thus, the consolidation of game development resources is understandable. We have seen, and will continue to see many smaller developers either swallowed up by larger companies or disappear altogether. So what happens then? As has happened before, many are looking for a life preserver … something to rescue them from the burden of money-losing hardware or the hundreds of games that are released and then quickly forgotten. Today’s popular life preserver is called online gaming.
From a player standpoint, online can, indeed, be “thrilling” but viewed from the bottom line of a business plan, its prospects are somewhat more “chilling.”
At Nintendo, we remain intrigued by the potential, just as we were back in the mid-‘80’s when we first connected our NES machines to a network in Japan. And it could be that players will decide, en masse, that the thrill of matching up against unseen opponents is worth the cost of monthly subscription fees, and maybe a bill for broadband access, on top of their hardware and software purchases. But for manufacturers and publishers, substantial online bets had better pay off. Unfortunately, there are several notable examples already where those bets did not.
Serious money is required to maintain the technology of a networked game, not to mention the regular infusion of new content to refresh player interest. Our master game designer, Shigeru Miyamoto, says that if he truly applied himself to an online project, it would significantly reduce the number of games he develops – because its design would never end. Beyond creative and maintenance resources, we also have to find out just where online gamers will come from.
If online play grows our market in real numbers, that’s wonderful. If, however, it merely cannibalizes existing hardcore players, the payoff may disappoint. Now, we at Nintendo don’t want to be seen as naysayers. After all, Nintendo GameCube is fully adaptable to handle both broadband and modem-enabled network games. In fact, our first such product, Sega’s excellent Phantasy Star Online just went on sale. But bottom line, if you look at online games today … promise? Yes. Life preserver? Not yet.
Let me describe to you how Nintendo is adapting to this market: showing flexibility where dynamics demand it and remaining as productive as ever executing against what is unchanged. At one time, it was possible for Nintendo internally to develop most of the best-selling games that played on our systems; those days are long gone.
