Scott McCall – N64HQ Editor In Chief / Webmaster

What's Up?

As many of you may have realized, I have been slowly fading into the Internet sunset over the past year. That has been my intention all along. But just because I'm not in the pubic eye anymore doesn't meant that I'm not around. I'm in the background as a silent reader of numerous sites. You just won't see me contributing letters or participating in chat.

With each passing day, N64 HQ seems more and more like a distant memory. Did I really do what I did? Yeah, I guess so. Sometimes I long for those days. Other times I'm glad that I cut loose when I did. Nevertheless, it's been impossible for me to cut the ties completely.

I decided I would fade into Internet obscurity once I went away to school. I spent my first two and a half years at the local Penn State McKeesport branch, which meant I still lived at home and was a commuter to school every day. In January 1999, I left home for the first time to finish my final two years of school at Penn State Erie, The Behrend College. I went there instead of State College because my MIS (Management Information Systems) major was only offered at Behrend. It's much, much smaller in comparison to University Park (3,500 vs. 40,000 students).

I met some great new people there, and I'm eagerly anticipating the fall semester. Even though I haven't been able to purchase or play anywhere near as many new games, I still managed to buy five N64 games in 1999: Castlevania, Mario Party, Vigilante 8, Super Smash Bros., and World Driver Championship. There are many N64 games coming out later this year that really pique my interest, too. Those titles include Pokemon Snap, Madden NFL 2000, Perfect Dark, Mario Golf 64, Top Gear Hyper-Bike or Excitebike 64, The New Tetris, Jet Force Gemini, Pokemon Stadium, Resident Evil 2, Donkey Kong 64, Gauntlet Legends, Vigilante 8: Second Offense, Duke Nukem: Zero Hour, Shadowman, and South Park: Chef's Luv Shack. Unfortunately, I'll probably only be able to buy six to eight of those games.

I made sure I continued to play video games while away at school. On the one-player side, I finished some games that I didn't complete before such as Top Gear Overdrive, Star Soldier: Vanishing Earth, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, and English versions of Super Mario 64 and Wave Race 64. I also played through Castlevania with both characters. I still got a handful of older games I'll need to finish in the fall, but I now make sure I play through my new games before purchasing more.

On the multi-player side, a ton of GoldenEye 007 was played. My roommate and some of the people I met through him knew how to play it, so that's why we played that a lot. Mario Party was a distant second for the next game played the most. My roommate and I also played as teammates in International Superstar Soccer 64, and there was some multi-player dabbling with South Park, F-Zero X, Snowboard Kids, and Mario Kart 64.

Since I've been home for the summer, I've had a chance to play games even more. Mario Party is great to play with a few friends when you're half-lit late at night. Vigilante 8 was an absolute blast, as a friend and me just went completely through the game. And Super Smash Bros. has

become a family affair between my older brother, my brother-in-law, and me. I'm also starting to play through World Driver Championship. I'm usually an arcade racing fan; however, I really wanted a racing game with more realism and depth, so I've been enjoying this one. It's kind of nice to have to use the brake in an N64 racing game.

Analyze This:

Let's move on to the real reason that you're reading this. Yes, I know, you want some of my comments regarding Nintendo's upcoming system. First, no, I'm not doing a site for it or writing about it. My webmastering and contributing days are over for now, although my college major could have me doing something like e-commerce. And, second, I don't have any secret sources who tell me information. So I only know as much as the average reader knows.

I would like to start by examining the competition. Let's talk about Sony. Why does everyone think Sony is unstoppable? It's not. In fact, it may be in trouble if it doesn't come up with a way to get the cost of the next PlayStation way down. It looks like it'll arrive at a cost of $400 or $500

in Japan, and you know there's no way it'll come out in the U.S. for less than $299.99 if it starts out that high. That's shooting yourself in the foot. I also think Sony is going to have software trouble in the beginning. The high development costs, coupled with the technical savvy needed to make games for it, could spell major problems.

Maybe even more intriguing than the retail price of PlayStation 2 is its backward compatibility with the original. The average consumer is looking for the most bang for the buck, and it's easy to see how this feature will appeal to them. But what about the disadvantages? Nintendo never made its newer systems compatible with its older systems for a reason. Why? It segregates the market. While hard-core gamers obviously will buy the latest and greatest, there is a good chance the mainstream market will continue to support the original system's games. By the time PlayStation 2 comes out, there will be enormous new and used markets for PSX games with falling prices. If consumers know they can play old games on their new system, along with watching DVD movies, they will be less inclined to buy PlayStation 2 games. Watch this closely.

Remember, Nintendo virtually once had a monopoly in the video game market, and unexpected things have happened in each generation of video games ever since. The mighty Sony very well may fall.

And what about Sega? Strangely, I think Sega has positioned itself and Dreamcast to be players in the market. The $200 price point is great, the number and types of games at launch are impressive, the development environment pleases third-party licensees, and it could very well be half the price of Sony's next PlayStation by the time that reaches American shores. Sega appears to be doing things correctly this time, and it does have the full retail support it needs. The only problem right now is its lackluster Japanese debut.

I do, however, have a few immediate question marks. I'm still not convinced the internal modem is really that important. Hopefully Sega won't overemphasize it. I think mainstream networking gaming is another three to five years away. I also think that Sega may have too many games at launch. There's absolutely no reason for a measly few hundred thousand gamers to choose from 12 to 15 games the day the system comes out. You're just taking away from your own sales when you do that.

Down the road, Sega needs the much-ballyhooed "killer app" and some innovative software, which usually go hand-in-hand. Let's face it, Sonic Adventure is no Super Mario 64. But I can see Sonic's popularity gaining come Christmas time. I think Sega could become the clear leader by the end of 2000 with the right games. So even though Sega's 1999 lineup is quite impressive, it is just filled with better versions of games that have been done over and over. Sega's going to have to come up with some innovative, must-have games for 2000 to really convert the masses.

Now we come to Nintendo. Is it me, or does this company seem to be back on the right track? Of course, I've been a staunch N64 supporter from the beginning, and I continue to be. Nintendo won't be able to claim victory in the 32/64-bit generation like it came back to win the 16-bit wars, but it can continue to narrow the gap.

Let's go back to the pre-E3 announcement about Project Dolphin. I know I was absolutely stunned when I read the news. I was getting chills up and down my body as I found out Nintendo had not only teamed with IBM for a Power PC chip but with Matshushita for a DVD drive. I would have bet a large sum of money that Nintendo wouldn't go with DVD. I just figured it would have gone with a proprietary format something along the lines of the 64DD's disk format, except with a larger capacity.

To me, this shows Nintendo is serious in regaining its market share. Now I fully believe that it can and will do it, because Nintendo has one huge edge over Sony right now: price. If Nintendo's next system is going to be half as much as Sony's, then there will be no competition. I'm sure Sony will find some way to reduce the price of PlayStation 2, but it might be too late or it might cause Sony to have too many losses. That's the price Sony paid for all of its expensive research and development, whereas Nintendo just let someone else do it.

But there could be a recurring Nintendo problem with this: delays. When I first read information that N2000 would be released worldwide in late 2000, I actually believed it. After all, this was a new Nintendo, right? Well, reality started to set in. I'm going to make Nintendo defy my odds once again, because I don't think N2000 will be on U.S. shelves until holiday season 2001. I mean, hell, it's not like we've seen any hardware pictures or even seen any demos. Assuming Sony doesn't fall too much behind schedule, it will probably have another year lead over Nintendo, which will give it time to reduce manufacturing costs of its system.

I'm also concerned that even if the hardware was ready, I don't think the software would be ready. We can assume that software development started fall 1998 at the earliest, and realistically, the games most likely didn't go into full production until early 1999. But I'm guessing that maybe only one development team at NCL, one development team at Rare, and maybe Retro Studios started by then. Here's hoping that I'm wrong, but I get the feeling that Dolphin software development just started or will be starting shortly. That tight development schedule seems too close for comfort.

At any rate, I don't know how anyone could not be as excited about N2000 as they are about PS2000. Both companies are taking similar routes with the DVD format and the ability to play DVD movies. And it looks like Nintendo is going after both the children and adult markets this time. And even though Sony exclusively has Squaresoft (for now), Nintendo exclusively has Miyamoto and Rare. Thank you, but I'll take the latter.

That's about all I have to say right now. My e-mail address is still

mailto:shm112@psu.edu and my Web site address is http://members.aol.com/capscott/

Cap Scott

Mike Hrusecky – N64HQ Senior Editor

Reactions and Expectations for Dolphin

Long time no type! For those who don't remember me, and I am sure there are more than enough, I'm Michael Hrusecky, former Senior Editor and perpetual tag along under Scott McCall and the former Nintendo 64 Headquarters. We're hedging in 2 years since the closing of the N64HQ, and a lot of things have changed within the industry, but I certainly can't say the same for me. :) We last left me volunteering for the AOL Games Channel in 1997, and we rejoin me employed. You can't laugh, I can work at 4 AM butt-naked in my own bedroom as often as I want and get paid for it. Jealous yet? Why not? Additionally, I have completed my career in technical school, and also act as a gopher (go for this, go for that...) for a, ahem, sports entertainment company whenever they are in the northeast region. Good to see how well I use my technical education.

That sums it up for my professional life lately. My personal life is personal, so bug out. :) I certainly haven't left the gaming scene, and I have plenty to say regarding the Dolphin and industry as a whole. Humor me as I enter a time warp and go back to my old self that uses really big words to sound important, if not for my own amusement, then to remind each and every one of you why you haven't remembered or missed me in the last 2 years.

It's always exciting when the system manufacturers announce their future consoles. We're blessed with the opportunity only every couple years. Even though current systems continue to generate the majority of the profits and sales, the gaming media enjoys discussing the "next-generation" that isn't arriving until as much as 2 years into the future. As surprising as it may sound, the 16-bit and 8-bit market sales are still generating hundreds of millions of dollars. The real-world lifespan of the 32-bit and 64-bit markets are not even middle aged, and now the Dreamcast, PSX2, and Dolphin systems will likely take priority in news headlines now and into the future even though they generate zero profit and sales, with the exception of the Dreamcast which is available in Japan. The seduction of hearsay is quite a meal ticket for the media. People feel like their "on the inside" if they know the exact release date of a game, or the megahertz of a processor, or a polygon count, none of which suggests what's most important -- are the games fun or not?!?

The Dolphin announcement is particularly of interest to me because, while I have owned all console systems at one time or another, Nintendo's business has held a soft spot because of my affiliation with the Nintendo 64 Headquarters along with Scott. It was an exciting time of my life to be part of the pre- and post-N64 launch era. Now it's time for the buildup to start all over... again. This time, with three systems on the way.

While the announcements are exciting and the imagination is left to run wild, let's not forget history, and Nintendo's timeline of delays and cancellations that have rocked the proverbial N64 boat. Cancellations and delays are not an issue solely for the Nintendo 64. It's within the management, and we would be foolish to believe it's all going to change with a new system. When "Project Reality" (renamed Ultra 64, renamed Nintendo 64) was announced back in August of 1993, it didn't take much time for the SNES CD to be canceled. Let's also not forget the delays the N64 faced. From a) fall 1995, to b) April 1996, to c) fall 1996. The delays were ultimately the result of vaporware hardware and incomplete software development tools.

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict two things:

1. The 64DD's death in the States.

2. No Dolphin until the fall of 2001.

It took the announcement of Project Reality to soften the blow of the SNES CD's death, just as I believe the 64DD's death to be softened by the announcement of a fresh, seemingly kick-ass 400 MHz DVD system. I strongly believe in the potential of the 64DD, but I think Nintendo knew what they were doing by holding off on the official death sentence until there was something suitable to take its place. As for the release date, a 4th quarter release is without question as that is the prime selling season. The year, however, I predict simply because there is no hardware or real development software to speak of yet. Nintendo announced general specs, but did not show even a technical demonstration. The technology behind the system that we know about, and especially the technology we DON'T know about, is highly competitive and is probably not easily obtainable at critical mass pricing by their target time frame. Nintendo has always been last in their system releases as a strategic move. Dolphin likely won't be any different. Worldwide, simultaneous launch? I'll believe that when I see it. These are my predictions and your mileage may vary. :)

While I am not surprised by the speed, manufacturer, micron size, or copper technology behind IBM's Dolphin processor, I must admit I am somewhat surprised at Nintendo's move to DVD. It's great to see how the industry has changed, and how Nintendo has finally decided to change their business model to keep up with it. The cartridge business was extremely lucrative for them. Even though Sony sold many more Playstations, Nintendo's N64 business was still more profitable because of the cartridge sales to developers.

Speaking of DVD, old-schoolers will remember the trayless CD-ROM drives of the past that required the CD to be placed in a caddy. Knowing Nintendo's target audience, it wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo were to sell their DVD games inside caddies to keep them protected from damage, not to mention as an anti-piracy measure. Those caddies could then in theory contain memory, as was planned for the SNES CD. The low manufacturing costs of CDs and DVDs are appealing to game developers, and such a DVD/caddy proprietary design would certainly be cheap, yet still garnish Nintendo some publishing bucks. All theoretical, of course.

With my prediction of the 64DD's death, this would leave Nintendo without the writable platform they desired. It wouldn't surprise me to see another technological announcement in the future regarding a cheap storage device. Knowing that Iomega is teaming with Sega to make a 100MB Zip drive for the Dreamcast, Nintendo will want to one-up them. With add-ons fractionating the market as much as they do, personally I would hope that the device would be a one-time purchase with no additional disks to buy. A hard drive, with say a 500MB capacity, would be more fitting for that type of role. Knowing that the Nintendo-Matsushita alliance plans to go into the home appliance and digital camera business, that may be the case.

If/when Nintendo goes online in the states, I think the biggest mistake would be to make a service dedicated to a specific gaming system because it would limit the service's life. I would hope for a more generic Nintendo community that covers the past and present with room for future growth, much like Nintendo's existing website. The connection device would ideally be somewhat standard, in that it would be compatible with future consoles. When you buy the Nintendo 2006 (or whatever), you could move your device to the new console without any problems. That is if the N2006 doesn't have built-in connections already.

As a side note, not many gamers are aware of it, but there is a Matsushita vs. Sony battle going on other than in the video games. While Matsushita has chosen DVD as their audio format of choice, Sony has their own format in mind known as the Super Audio CD format. Nintendo may become a strong ally of Matsushita's in the battle against Sony's SACD.

These are my expectations for Nintendo and Dolphin in the next two years. Perhaps in another two years I'll be back to apologize for how ridiculously inaccurate I was. Oh well. It'll be just as fun. :) For those interested in getting in contact with me about this article or for any other reason, feel free to contact me at NoWayOut11@aol.com anytime!