Ooohhh... I like the idea of a 10/10/10 launch worldwide launch.  It's even on a Sunday.

Doubtful, though.  *maybe* Japanese October launch.

Seems too soon after the launch of the DSi XL.

I'm also beginning to doubt that the system will actually be called the "3DS." If they want it to be a whole new platform, they'll have to separate it from the existing handheld.

I mentioned this in the 3DS thread already, so I'll just quote myself from there:

It worked for the Game Boy/Game Boy Color/Game Boy Advance.

Heck, Nintendo Entertainment System and Super Nintendo Entertainment System, even...

In Japan, maybe. (It's not like Natal is a factor there.) In America, NOA wants one last blockbuster holiday season for the DS. I'll be surprised if they even drop the price of DS by Christmas, much less launch a successor.

Why would they want to separate themselves from the most successful gaming platform ever?
It all comes down to the marketing.
"This isn't a DS 2, it's so much more than that.... this is the 3 DS!"

I'm thinking late January/early February. Like Jonny said, I think NOA wants one last holiday push for the DS, and to give the XL a chance to actually make money.

Also, CVG made note of Level 5 developing a game for the system, which seems like a no-brainer to me. They've made so much money on the system, you'd think it was a forgone conclusion.

I also said this in the 3DS thread (same post about this CVG article)

I think pretty much ANY launch date is too soon after the DSi XL.  Nintendo are going to look like crooked con-man jackasses with the DSi, but there's nothing that can stop that now.  They decided to rip people off and now there is going to be that risk of a backlash, or at the very least low DSi XL sales.

I think it all depends on what they have ready for the October launch.  I don't want it to be like the DS launch where they pretty much had nothing to offer.  It was clearly too early and was a bad first impression for the DS.  Sure the DS did great in the end, but why risk it?

I feel in a Natal vs. 3DS launch window that Nintendo probably carries the bigger hype at this point.  I think MS should be more scared that the 3DS is going to take away attention for Natal than the other way around.  We're comparing a successor to one of the most success portables of all time to an accessory for a second place console.

DSi/XL is targetting the marginal leftover fringe users that can't see the DS very well or just naturally late adopters.  It wasn't meant to be the lead marketing image in the product series.

3DS is for the usual handheld masses who'll quickly jump on to the new stuff; the DSi users are just casually in the backseat catching up, or not making an effort to catch up at all cuz they just want to chill in the backseat.

It's about continuing to serve different sections of the market; no one hardware iteration will take care of all sectors for the entirety of its market life.

Natal doesn't matter for this, it's a handheld.

Natal matters for mind share of the potential consumers.

I have a few extra hundred dollars to spare/spend and want some new entertainment for my dollar. Do I buy the Nata....HOLYSH!T Nintendo 3DS!!!

Nov. 21st. $199.99

HERE WE COME, Nintendo GAMECUBE

This thing does NOT need to release so early, but what ever. So the real question is do I get it at launch only to by 93 newer versions months and years down the line? I think we all know the answer to that is "yes, yes indeed"!

Well you can either buy the original model and have it get replaced by a better version 6 months later or you can wait for the better version and have it get replaced by the 3DS successor 6 months later. ;)

BlackNMild, what makes you think Japan will get it first (Nintendo has not said what region will get it first)? The last two systems, Wii and Nintendo DS, both launched in North America first.

Assuming this rumor is true (I never assume any rumor is true, so I will treat the 3DS release date as the official TBA), why would anybody find it odd? The Wii and DS both launched in mid/late November, the North American release of the GameCube was also in  November. The North American release of N64 was in September. Nintendo has a history of fall releases for systems.

DS is still killing the charts in the US and EUR, but everything has taken a hit in Japan.

If Nintendo was focused on releasing this in the US first, then it probably wouldn't even exist(in ready to be mass-produced kind of way) considering DSiXL just came out and DS as a brand is still pushing 500-800k in non-holiday months.

DSi XL came out months ago in Japan, sales are steady but not great and are no where near the number that are happening on a monthly basis here in NA.

I personally think it's gonna be a WW launch as it would be wise to push the HYPE through the roof and completely take over all consumer mind share everywhere at the same time so that Move/Natal don't get a foot hold in any market. But if it were to be a staggered launch, I feel Japan would get it first for the reasons I stated above.

The Game Boy Advance was still kicking ass when in North America when the DS came out. For October 2004 (the month before DS launched), the GBA sold 464K systems in the US, which was higher than every other system. Nintendo goes by Japan sales though, and GBA had slowed down in Japan while it remained strong in North America (which was the biggest market for the system, over half of the systems worldwide sales were in the Americas).

And where did the GBA come out first....?

Japan. It launched in Japan in March 2001, then North America in June.

The closet.

Some of it depends what the launch software will be, which we don't have any info on as of yet.

It was a rhetorical question.

You answer would relate back to the question you first asked of me.
Why Japan 1st?

Unless third party developers have been secretly developing for the system in the past year, I do not see them releasing the device this year unless Nintendo plans to carry the slack for the 3DS games for atleast a while for the third parties to pick up. I just want to avoid a two year dry season like what we went through for the DS. Nintendo will most likely let the DS have one more holiday season before retiring it and releasing the 3DS some time in 2011.

The DS dry spell was nothing compared to the one on the N64.

I don't think many people of the 3DS audience care about Natal and I don't think mindshare really matters either.

There won't be that bad of a dry spell...if developers were thinking the system would launch early next year like around March.  Say the 3DS launches in the October with 3 First Party Games, and no 3rd party games...unlikely, but still.  That means that you have 3 games to play at launch, and most likely 3rd party developers will trickle their games 1 or 2 a month until around March when a flood gate of games would come out.

That doesn't sound too bad...specially if you also have regular DS games, DSi games and other downloads.  A portable virtual console, and more. 

I think you underestimate the number of people who own a DS and a 360....

i dont get people talking about how 3ds seems so soon after DSiXL,

XL was nothing but a larger dsi and is essentially just another color of DSi

the color for big handed or poor eye-sited people.

Oh there will certainly be a lot of overlap simply because the DS sold a ton but how many people will be deciding between a 3DS and Natal? And how many would actually go for Natal?

A lot less now that 3DS will be all up in their MIND SHARE!!!

Microsoft and Sony are doing what Nintendo decided not to do: release a motion add-on for a current system. The choice will not be very hard for most people. Brand new system with 3D or an add-on for a current system.

Its true.  I believe Sony and Microsoft both are making reactionary mistakes towards Nintendo's Wii.  Sony and MS would have been very smart to leave the generation as it is, and just plan to combat Nintendo's strategy next generation....instead they are both trying for a short term victory over Nintendo and I don't believe it will work.  It is just going to create division within their own market share. 

Though, I do believe Sony probably foolishly believes it can get a good 6-8 years with their PS3 console.  Unfortunately it won't work.  Once one company jumps the gun and plans releasing another console it will be a made dash for the other companies to follow suit.  Nintendo is actually in the best situation for quickly releasing new systems since they always make a profit on their systems....it means they don't have to worry about making up a big hole. 

I hope that 2011 Nintendo launches a new system that just screws with Sony and Microsoft for even attempting to add on to the current generation. 

The timing for the next Nintendo console doesn't even matter, you can expect it to add yet another direction for games that MS and Sony didn't even think of. Maybe they'd even be in a better position if MS and Sony already have finalized their systems by then and can only cram a half-baked clone like the sixaxis in, if at all.

KDR:  True.  And although I am a die hard Nintendo fan.  I don't want to see the industry as a whole making bad decisions...because it hurts everyone. 

Instead, I wish Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo make the best decisions for their own companies and have large amounts of success.  I just want Nintendo to have more.