Analysts Predictions on the Handheld Market

April 29, 2004, 9:00 am EDT
Total comments: 9

A new report finds that new handhelds will be successful, but won't be able to overshadow Nintendo's market.

Nintendo's Game Boy to Maintain Dominance in Market it Pioneered

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., April 28, 2004 - Long the sole territory of Nintendo's Game Boy line, the handheld gaming market has suddenly become crowded with competition, reports In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). However, the high-tech market research firm finds that, with three new handheld consoles coming to market, Nintendo is not intending to rest on its laurels, offering new product lines and accessories in an effort to maintain its hold on this market. As a result, Nintendo will enjoy continued success in the market segment that it pioneered with both its Game Boy and its new DS platform.

While the Nokia N-Gage, Tapwave Zodiac and Sony PlayStation Portable (PSP) focus on gaming, they do offer other features, ranging from digital audio players to Bluetooth capability to mobile phone functionality that make them new types of consumer convergence devices. However, according to Brian O'Rourke, a Senior Analyst with In-Stat/MDR's converging markets and technologies group, "Nintendo is the most successful company in the history of handheld games. While all three of these new platforms have higher prices, and are targeting an older demographic than the incumbent Game Boy platform, none will be able to escape Nintendo's long shadow."

In-Stat/MDR has also found that:

Sony will also be successful in this market as it should be able to draw on its PlayStation experience and substantial software library to succeed in the handheld market. The PSP is scheduled to make its debut in Japan in the fourth quarter of 2004.

Nokia, though it may struggle at times, has initially shown the resources and determination to succeed in this market. Nokia will face substantial challenges in establishing the platform and assuring the availability of sufficient software to entice consumer interest.

A start-up company founded by ex-Palm executives, Tapwave may be the odd man out, as it has difficulty competing with the heavyweights in this market. Tapwave has the most difficult task of the three competitors in establishing its platform. It is currently available only on the web and does not have the deep pockets of its competitors. As a result, it will be challenged in attracting third-party publishers to develop game software, the lifeblood of any game platform.

The report, Emerging Handheld Game Platforms: It's Not Just Game Boy Anymore (#IN0401151ID), includes in-depth analysis and forecasts for the emerging handheld platforms, as well as for Nintendo's platforms. Shipment and revenue forecasts through 2008 are provided for the Nokia N-Gage, Sony PSP, Tapwave Zodiac, Nintendo Game Boy Advance SP, next-generation Nintendo Game Boy, and the Nintendo DS. Analysis of mobile gaming markets are also provided. Results from In-Stat/MDR's technology panel survey on emerging handheld platforms are provided as well.

To purchase this report, or for more information, please contact Courtney McEuen at 281-246-4668; cmceuen@reedbusiness.com. The report price is $2,795 U.S. Dollars.

Talkback

BloodworthDaniel Bloodworth, Staff AlumnusApril 29, 2004

$2795 for a report that just backs up what any gamer could have told you anyways... looks like I'm in the wrong business.

Ian SaneApril 29, 2004

"looks like I'm in the wrong business."

Hey at least you get to go to E3 and get special press sneak peeks of games and stuff. The rest of us give out this sort of analysis for free on a forum and get absolutely nothing out of it. Aside from the pleasure of reading our own writing of course.

"Nokia, though it may struggle at times, has initially shown the resources and determination to succeed in this market."

Now it doesn't say that the N-Gage will be a huge success or anything but I think even this statement is giving Nokia too much credit. Nokia managed to make a game system that 99% of the internet gaming community sh!t on. That's REALLY hard to do. Even total failures like the 32X get some praise but the N-Gage gets nothing but hate. And the reason for that is it is a really poorly designed system. It's clear that Nokia did virtually no research whatsoever when designing it. The screen is vertical yet has no shooters that make use of the screen, the button layout sucks, the price is too high, and the original design required the phone to be taken apart to swap games and you talked into it like a taco. Even though the redesign fixes some of those things the games still aren't anything to get excited about and I don't think there are even any exclusives (most are PSX or GBA ports). Let's not forget that Nokia publicly bashed Gameboy owners. Realistically I think they made such a bad impression that no matter what Nokia will not succeed really at all in the videogame industry. They don't have the resources or the determination to succeed. They're arrogant and ignorant and thought they could just waltz in and succeed in the game industry.

Now that will be $2795 please.

nickmitchApril 29, 2004

Upon reading reading this news I felt a various aray of emotions. Complicated though they be they can all be summed up it one word. An easy word yet a powerful one. That word being: DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DjunknownApril 29, 2004

Any business majors care to tell us why these 'studies' cost an exorbatant amount of money? Like Bloodworth and Ian said, we could just drop out of school and just be 'analysts.' Why am I wasting my time in college?

I'm pretty sure the PR staff regret talking all that smack last summer; they STILL don't have a killer app!

If you've seen those TapWave ads (I saw them on GameSpot when you stream movies.), it seems they too take a jab at the GBA; and they don't have anything to show for it yet! I could see this surviving as a high-end palm, but unless this makes retail, I can't take them seriously.

Now where's my money?

Felis Demens CCXXIApril 29, 2004

Whaaaa? An analyst report on Nintendo that doesn't spell certain doom for them? We can't have that, the analyst responsible will have to be sacked.

couchmonkeyApril 30, 2004

While I agree that the report doesn't say much earth-shattering, it's got credibility because it is written by people with degrees in business who (theoretically) put a lot of research into it. The thing is, most hardcore gamers instinctively understand the industry that well to begin with. Maybe planetgamecube should try to make some cash writing reports like this for investors!

Anyhow, I think the report may be overestimating Nokia, somewhat, and underestimating Sony. I don't think PSP is going to take over the Gameboy market, but I am worried about the scenario where casual gamers start to view the GBA as a budget handheld, or worse yet, as being a generation behind the PSP. If that does happen, I hope Nintendo doesn't wait three generations before bringing itself up to speed like it has with its home consoles.