We store cookies, you can get more info from our privacy policy.

Nintendo: Wii 2 Not Necessary for 2011

by Neal Ronaghan - November 13, 2010, 6:03 pm EST
Total comments: 56 Source: (Kotaku), http://kotaku.com/5688540/wii-2-is-not-a-must-for-...

Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime believes the Wii has many more systems to sell.

The successor to the Wii is not a must for 2011, according to Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime in an interview with Kotaku.

"As we sit here today we're saying the Wii has many, many more units to sell," Fils-Aime said. "After we've reached an installed base of 45 million here in the U.S., we can have a conversation about the next generation."

According to the NPD Group, the Wii has currently sold a little more than 30 million units. If the system were to continue to sell as well as it has over the past four years, then it would likely reach 45 million units, at the earliest, in 2012.

Talkback

AVNovember 13, 2010

Reggie isn't stupid, his higher ups told him to say this. If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

broodwarsNovember 13, 2010

Quote from: Mr.

Reggie isn't stupid, his higher ups told him to say this. If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

This.  If Nintendo thinks they can coast through 2011 with just the 3DS...well, they're probably right, but I don't think investors are going to look kindly on seeing the Wii entering 2012 without even an announcement of its successor.  This is all just spin handed to Reggie by Nintendo of Japan.  There's no way we don't see an announcement of Wii 2 by E3 2011, though it probably won't release till 2012.

I'm more shaken by the "until we hit 45 million units, no news at all."

I don't know what the hell they have up their sleeve that will make this system last for two more years. And remember, that's two years of the same crazy-as-hell sales of the past four. Realistically, I think it might take three years to get to 45 million.

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

broodwarsNovember 13, 2010

Quote from: NWR_Neal

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

Considering that Nintendo of America is little more than a puppet division of Nintendo of Japan, this is highly likely.  Either that, or Nintendo of Japan is severely underestimating Kinect and Move's potential to slow Wii sales.

NWR_pap64Pedro Hernandez, Contributing WriterNovember 13, 2010

Move: Not a chance. GameStops are still carrying the Move and sales have been slow (unless the Holiday rushes does wonders).


Kinect: Definitely. From what I heard and read, it is selling fine.


I'll be stunned if Nintendo doesn't announce at least plans for their next system.

I expect some kind of announcement of the Wii 2 next year regardless of when it's going to be released.

Quote from: broodwars

Quote from: NWR_Neal

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

Considering that Nintendo of America is little more than a puppet division of Nintendo of Japan, this is highly likely.  Either that, or Nintendo of Japan is severely underestimating Kinect and Move's potential to slow Wii sales.

I think Reggie has enough respect from Iwata that he knows the truth; if what he said isn't true (and I certainly hope it's not), Reggie knows it. This goes with my argument from the other thread that Nintendo isn't going to say anything about the Wii successor until after the 3DS launch. You can't trust anything Nintendo says about the Wii 2 until at least E3.

steveyNovember 13, 2010

Quote:

If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

??? reverse fanboy goggles? Move's sales sucks and Kinect is the eyetoy 2.0. It's would be stupid for Nintendo to be the 1st out to announce a new console especially with their allergies to top of the line specs. They don't need to compete with the ps360 with a new console and if they do announce early; it'll just gives Sony time to rip them off since they're not too anxious to kill the ps3 early after it's slow start with a minor upgrade or another $599 to bomb sales for years.

I'm betting we'll get it's name around CES/GDC2012 and a fully hyped reveal at E3 2012. In Reggie I trust :reggie:

ThePermNovember 13, 2010

of course Kinect is doing better than Move, more people have 360s than PS3s

jimwood27November 14, 2010

of course they arent going to say anything about a new system with the holiday season ramping up (which has been great for the Wii, just look at last year's holiday compared to the months preceding it).  the 3DS is the main focus once the new year starts and no way Nintendo launches a second system in the same year.


Reggie also says in that interview that the Wii is still tracking 20+% higher in sales compared to the PS2 (the best selling system ever) during the same period of its existence.  There is still room for price drops to $149 and then $99, as well as different bundles that we are seeing pop up.


I understand the want of a more powerful system from Nintendo but it is still selling well, just not as insanely well as in the past.  We havent seen a generation where the companies have been able to refresh their systems like Sony and Microsoft have but this overwhelming sentiment that Nintendo NEEDS a new console is rather ridiculous when it is outperforming the PS2, comparatively.  Sony probably jumped the gun to get the PS3 out and could have waited to release it so maybe Nintendo doesnt want to make the same mistake.

PeachylalaNovember 14, 2010

Let us all not forget that the DS predated the Wii by at least two years. Nintendo was pretty much expecting the DS to carry them since third party and sales figured snuffed them for two generations of consoles (even if they made a profit). Wii took everyone by surprise. Nintendo was happy. Third parties were not and snuffed the system, though we all know what that led too...

I do believe Iwata (not Reggie) is keeping the Wii2/HD/3D under wraps since third party support is still giving the same old whining and complaining (though some of it is kind of justified) when it comes to Wii. I think it's absolutely ridiculous that Nintendo has to give out money hats to developers belonging to major third party publishers in order to get support like, say, Monster Hunter 3, but whatever keeps the boat afloat, stays afloat.

3DS is going to steal Wii's thunder. There is no way around it.

NWR_pap64Pedro Hernandez, Contributing WriterNovember 14, 2010

Peachlayla, you mention money hats as something that companies never do :p . But in all seriousness, video games are a business, and they will do anything to get the grand games that will make them money, even if it means shelling out millions upon millions of dollars just to get something like DLC or a game episode.


Going back to the Wii 2, here is what I was thinking... 2011 is going to be the year of the 3DS. It might be a handheld, yes, but considering that it is highly sophisticated the media is going to eat it up. The 3D without glasses thing is going to attract a lot of people, and the fact that it is the first of the next generation of handhelds to be released it's going to receive a lot of hype and coverage.


What I suspect will happen is that Nintendo will work on the 3DS, then after launch or during E3 they will begin to drop news of the next system. They will either completely tease us or do a full unveiling of a few aspects. Note that we still have a few Wii exclusives, like Skyward Sword, to get into, so Fall 2011 will be the Wii's last big holiday season before they unveil the next system.


This is just crazy theory, though, but everything looks to be happening the same way as in the past.

Luigi DudeNovember 14, 2010

There's also the fact that hardly any of Nintendo's major studio's couldn't realistically have anything for a Wii 2 launch in 2011.  It takes Nintendo's studio's on average about 2-3 years to make a game.  Considering all of their studio's have recently released something on the Wii in the last year, or have a 3DS game scheduled to come out next year, that makes it virtually impossible for them to have anything to launch the system with in 2011 or even early 2012.

Not to mention the fact that Nintendo has never developed any HD games before.  If the Wii 2 is going to be rivaling the 360/PS3 or even more powerful, it's going to take the early generation of games even longer then normal for their studio's to make since none of them have any experience with HD development and have to create new engines as well.  The jump between systems isn't going to be like it was with the Gamecube/Wii where they were able to easily modify all their existing Gamecube engines.  If they're going to be hitting 360/PS3 level power, then it's going to take a lot more work this time.

So like I've said many time before, the earliest a Wii's successor will launch is Fall 2012 just from the basic fact that's when we could realistically expect a decent lineup of games to be ready based on Nintendo's previous development history and how their studio's work.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii successor doesn't launch until 2013 just for the fact that HD development might end up causes some of Nintendo's studio's some trouble because of their lack of experience right now.  Similar to how most other Japanese studio's ended taking so long to release a lot of their 360/PS3 games because HD development proved to be harder then they expected it to be.

Chozo GhostNovember 14, 2010

Well, if it isn't going to come out in the 4th quarter of 2011 then hopefully the 1st quarter of 2012 will be the target date.

True, Nintendo consoles see the majority of their sales during the holidays and I'm sure Nintendo would love to get in on that, but if the Wii2 is half as popular as the original Wii was there would be severe shortages if they launched in, say, November 2011. If they waited until about March of 2012 then they would be able to build up momentum and hopefully get the supply situation in order by the time the holidays roll around and be able to pack some serious punch.

I remember how hard it was to get a Wii for months and months and months after it launched. That's why I'm thinking launching the Wii 2 during a dead time of year might be the way to go. That gives more time for the library of games to improve as well, because we all know that there's going to be 2 or 3 good 1st party games and 2 or 3 decent 3rd party games at launch, and everything else is just going to be rushed casual shovelware. I'd rather get that sad time done and over with early on so that the holiday lineup can be spectacular.

KDR_11kNovember 14, 2010

The 3DS strategy is unhealthy. Nintendo is focusing too much on tech and not enough on games.

Killer_Man_JaroTom Malina, Associate Editor (Europe)November 14, 2010

Honestly, I can't say I'm surprised.

1. Firstly, consider the timing of this interview. We are homing in fast on the holiday season, where Wii sales always see a sudden spike, and this year, there is a particularly good software line-up. It's obviously not in Nintendo's interest to say anything that would discourage the Christmas boost in revenue, like, oh I don't know, "There's a new console coming soon, so everyone hold your horses."

2. Next year is the time for the 3DS to shine. Nintendo will be pumping a lot of resources into the launch of their new handheld. Again, it's not in their interest to divert any attention from that.

3. The situation with Wii software in 2011 is still a big mystery. Who knows? Right now, there isn't much we are aware of, but perhaps at E3, there will be one final unload of whatever the internal teams have left. One last surge before it walks off stage, so to speak.

BlackNMild2k1November 14, 2010

Quote from: Luigi

There's also the fact that hardly any of Nintendo's major studio's couldn't realistically have anything for a Wii 2 launch in 2011.  It takes Nintendo's studio's on average about 2-3 years to make a game.  Considering all of their studio's have recently released something on the Wii in the last year, or have a 3DS game scheduled to come out next year, that makes it virtually impossible for them to have anything to launch the system with in 2011 or even early 2012.

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Quote:

Not to mention the fact that Nintendo has never developed any HD games before.  If the Wii 2 is going to be rivaling the 360/PS3 or even more powerful, it's going to take the early generation of games even longer then normal for their studio's to make since none of them have any experience with HD development and have to create new engines as well.  The jump between systems isn't going to be like it was with the Gamecube/Wii where they were able to easily modify all their existing Gamecube engines.  If they're going to be hitting 360/PS3 level power, then it's going to take a lot more work this time.

Actually Nintendo's may not have been doing HD development, but their assets have been of a really good quality and that is why they look so good ont he Dolphin emulator. If the Wii2 is capable of upscaling Wii games, Nintendo own games will already look HD, so I'm sure they will have it together when actual HD development is revealed. (I would love to see Kirby running on the Wii emulator BTW)

Quote:

So like I've said many time before, the earliest a Wii's successor will launch is Fall 2012 just from the basic fact that's when we could realistically expect a decent lineup of games to be ready based on Nintendo's previous development history and how their studio's work.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii successor doesn't launch until 2013 just for the fact that HD development might end up causes some of Nintendo's studio's some trouble because of their lack of experience right now.  Similar to how most other Japanese studio's ended taking so long to release a lot of their 360/PS3 games because HD development proved to be harder then they expected it to be.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Skyward Sword was getting the Twilight Princess treatment with a Wii & Wii2 version. And don't forget that a Wii2 launch would likely be littered with 3rd party ports from PS360. 3rd parties have got the HD development under control now and Nintendo is no slouch when it comes to the assets they've been using, so I think they are more ready for HD development than you give them credit for. I'm not expecting Nintendo to chase the Photorealism(outside of maybe pikmin) so I don't think HD development will be all that hard.

MaryJaneNovember 14, 2010

Quote from: KDR_11k

The 3DS strategy is unhealthy. Nintendo is focusing too much on tech and not enough on games.

Nintendo has the game making part of the industry wrapped up pretty well. Other than Sonic, and Master Chief, all memorable and easily recognizable game characters are from Nintendo. There are some others like Kratos from God of War, and that one guy from Tekken, who mostly all hardcore gamers would recognize, but you could probably show the average American house wife a picture of Link, Mario, Donkey Kong, and Kirby and she would recognize them all (though she'd probably call Link Zelda). She would probably recognize Sonic and Master Chief, but who else? There's even a pretty good chance she would know of the Brain Training games, WiiSports, and WiiFit.

Nintendo knows games!

When was the last time Nintendo made a game that wasn't the gold standard? Even WiiMusic which started off slowly picked up in sales when people understood the concept and fun of it.
I would list all the unique IP's Nintendo has successfully launched (quick mention of Pikmin and Animal Crossing because I personally doubted the validity of both and was proven wrong) but you probably know them. Metroid: Other M hasn't sold well, but I personally think that is because of using only the Wiimote, it makes it seem overly simple, like a dumbed down Metroid game, despite the fact that it's a good game.

My point is this: they don't need to focus on making great games because they know how to do that, and they still have people like Miyamoto who are passionate about game making and will make sure their titles are AAA. All they need to do to perfect the formula is attract more 3rd parties, and more 'hardcore' gamers, and the way to do that in this generation is through technology. While the N64 and GC were more powerful than the PS1 and PS2, the N64 used cartridges making it feel old, and the GC couldn't escape its kiddy persona. Being kiddy and technologically advance do not go together, and I guarantee  there are still a lot of PS2/3 users who think the PS2 was more powerful than the GC, and that perception affected its user base. With the Wii, and its innovative controller, Nintendo opened up the Blue Ocean market, but in turn, closed itself off to the hardcore (non-Nintendo fan) market. A lot of gamers today are tweens who grew up with a PS1/2 in the house, not an NES or SNES, and their loyalties are with what's popular and perceived as cool. On the flip side of that, a few years ago one of my friend's younger brothers was upset with himself a few years ago for asking for a PSP for Christmas because only one other person in his class got a PSP, and 5 or 6 others got a DS.

Perception is everything, and with the 3DS Nintendo is not only making a bold statement, but they could be testing the waters for the Wii2, just like they sort of did with the DS and Wii.

Also, if Nintendo does some good 3DS/Wii integration, the 3DS could boost Wii 2011 holiday sales, meaning a E3 2012 reveal of the Wii2 and on sale by holiday 2012.

KDR_11kNovember 14, 2010

The number of people who really care that much about graphics is tiny (the Gamecube wasn't much worse off than the XBox which everybody believed was the best system back then). The rest looks for types of games. The "hardcore" who stick to the 360 and PS3 do so for the genres that are practically not present on the Wii.

Improving the graphics while keeping the games similar means your console appeals to people who bought your last system, best case would be retaining all of those people but most likely you'll lose some in the transition. Same games with better graphics is the path to stagnation and decline. How many people looked at the DS and thought "I don't want it because the graphics look bad"? Using the PSP as evidence, not many.

Especially the talk about 2d and 3d gaming is worrying when you consider that 3d didn't help Nintendo's success in the past, neither the N64 nor the Gamecube sold as much as the NES or SNES. 2D Mario games outsell 3D Mario games. There are people who just don't like the direction these 3D games took and going by the sales numbers they are legion. Of course it isn't truly about 2D vs 3D but the actual gameplay that's massively different between the two (the Tanooki suit would not have been possible in 3D Mario as powerups are granted only as needed by the player, finding a secret stash of super powerups that you can use to beat several levels just doesn't exist in 3D) but the was Nintendo talks about the failure of the campaign to move 2D Mario gamers to 3D Mario and the failure of Other M it doesn't look like they really understand the forces they are dealing with. Ignorance like that can punch them in the gut at other times too. Since they no longer understand their own core can they really make sure their core games like Kid Icarus are going to succeed?


What would it mean for Nintendo's game output if their core games failed to resonate with the audience and subsequently failed? Would they keep experimenting until it works? Would they cut the development of core games to a lower level? Would they go back to known successes and just keep rehashing them, even more afraid of change?

Kytim89November 14, 2010

Nintendo has enough software backup to legitamize a fifty dollar price cut for the Wii.

MaryJaneNovember 14, 2010

@KDR

My argument was for technology, perspective, and attracting 3rd parties (which in turn brings the 'hardcore' gamers).

Technology and/or perception > graphics.

When the Wii was announced loads of developers said they had game ideas that could only be brought to the Wii, and many of them were brought to the system, and suffered from technological weaknesses like Bloom Blox and the Wii's physics processing. 

Same with the DS, the touchscreen and dual screen allowed for new gameplay, with the difference being that one CPU powers one screen and one another, so the limitations aren't as constricting and also that Nintendo is the emperor of the handheld arena (king seems too weak a word all things considered).

The PSP was seen as the next GameGear in part because it looked like it (lol) and in part because it was built on the same philosophy of more power and less battery life than Nintendo.

@Kytim

They do, but why would they when bundles are usually the biggest holiday sales drivers? I would say expect a price cut with the 3DS launch, making the handheld seem like an even greater technological accomplishment.

Kytim89November 14, 2010

If the third party situation was any better for the Wii then I could argue that the Wii could make it to 45 million units sold. But it seems as if even Nintendo is some what finished with the Wii in some sense. Although spear heading the RPG genre onto the Wii 2 might buy the system some extra time. That genre has been lacking and it might spur interest in the system again.

Dirk TemporoNovember 14, 2010

If you think the Wii's successor will come out any time before Holiday 2012, you're pretty much delusional, and apparently have also not paid any attention to the history of the various consoles' announce and release schedules. Just because they're launching the 3DS at an odd time of year doesn't mean they'll do the same with their next home console, especially considering they probably won't even announce it until E3.

Kytim89November 14, 2010

What we will get at E3 2011 is just a repeat of 2005 where we get to see what the system looks like, but games and controllers will be left to the unknown. They will most likely reveal that the system is HD and that third parties have plenty of games (ports of PS360 games) for the release of the system.

BlackNMild2k1November 14, 2010

Quote from: Dirk

If you think the Wii's successor will come out any time before Holiday 2012, you're pretty much delusional, and apparently have also not paid any attention to the history of the various consoles' announce and release schedules. Just because they're launching the 3DS at an odd time of year doesn't mean they'll do the same with their next home console, especially considering they probably won't even announce it until E3.

So now we are all delusional for thinking Nintendo is gonna stick to it's tried and true 5 year cycle as close as possible that it can because we haven't been paying attention to history?
'86 -> '91 -> '96 -> '01 -> '06 -> ('11?)

A holiday 2011 seems a lot more unlikely now that 3DS slipped past 2010 holiday season, but just because Reggie says it's not necessary doesn't mean that it's not what they are aiming for, even if two major hardware launches at the same time is not ideal. Also the 3DS could be used to test out the early year launch period and that same strategy could be used to launch a Wii2 before FY2011 is over like 3DS is launched before FY 2010 is over.

Kytim89November 14, 2010

I want the Wii 2 as soon as possible because I am craving bigger and better games.

TJ SpykeNovember 14, 2010

The NES launched in 1985 (it was only in New York, but it still counts), even longer if you count it's 1983 launch in Japan. Besides, they don't have the same sense of urgency now (the Genesis had better graphics and was starting to outsell NES, PlayStation was starting to become huge, N64 sales and GCN sales were insignificant by the end of their generation).

Wii sales are still good enough that Wii 2 isn't needed anytime soon, and they can still drop the price to $180 or $150 to boost sales when they need too. I don't see PlayStation Move or Kinect having any impact on their release plans.

KDR_11kNovember 14, 2010

I think they pretty much said that the Wii needs a pricedrop this year. 2011 for a new console doesn't seem likely because it takes longer to gear those up (the system must be announced close to when SDKs go out so it doesn't leak) but I wouldn't rule out a mid-year 2012 launch.

Um, we'll see how well Wii sells this holiday season. I expect it to perform at a fraction of last year's numbers. Next year will be a fraction of a fraction, and the software lineup will be even weaker.

ShyGuyNovember 14, 2010

I assume we will see or at least hear about the Wii 2 before we reach 45 million. I think it will be mentioned at E3 2011

Kytim89November 14, 2010

Quote from: ShyGuy

I assume we will see or at least hear about the Wii 2 before we reach 45 million. I think it will be mentioned at E3 2011


It will most likely be revealed at E3 2011 for a release in 2012.

Mop it upNovember 14, 2010

If Nintendo wants the Wii to keep selling then they'll have to start putting more effort into pushing systems out there. Adding more value to the Wii system package is a must, they should at least add in a second controller so multiplayer can be played out of the box. They've also been pushing the Motion Plus as a new standard but haven't backed it up with software, so they should get some more games out there that use it. In North America it'd be even easier to create a solid release schedule for 2011; just localize some games that haven't been released here yet.

As for me personally, I don't really care how long it takes for the next system to launch, because the Wii library is enough that I'm not going to want a new system for some time.

Kytim89November 14, 2010

Could Nintendo release a stop gap system similar to the DSi and raise console sales?

StogiNovember 14, 2010

This is very uninteresting. What actually makes it rather fun is how all of you are up-in-arms one way or another.

Why did Reggie say that? Well because it's the only answer he could have given and not because of anything else. Read the article and not the snippet. There was no puppetry and no sincere truth in it; just PR at it's most uninteresting.

What it did do is make all of you begin to speculate when it would appear and why, which is way more interesting.

BlackNMild2k1November 14, 2010

@Kytim
No. we don't want a WiiHD at a price refresh. What Nintendo needs to do is take their value added package and drop the price.

A Black Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and Mario Kart with a Black Wheel and a Black Wiimote+ for $179.99
A White Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and Super Mario Galaxy 2 with 1000 Wii points and a White Wiimote+ for $179.99
A Red Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and NSMBWii and 25th Anniversary SMB VC and a Red Wiimote+ for $179.99

They need better bundles at a slightly reduced price and they need to hurry up and combine WiiSports and WiiSports Resort into one game package. It's looong overdue.

yoshi1001November 14, 2010

A lot of it depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline for hardware. If they really have the next big thing (in their estimation) but there's no way they can get it out before 2012 (maybe even 2013), they'll wait until then.

As for possible games for a Wii 2, I haven't seen any mention of a Pokemon Stadium/Colosseum/Revolution game for Black and White (correct me if I've missed it). It would be a fairly easy game to develop and would sell a fair number of consoles. Granted, that would be one game, but I'm sure some of you could think of others.

Quote from: The

Read the article and not the snippet. There was no puppetry and no sincere truth in it; just PR at it's most uninteresting.

i'm assuming by the article you mean the Kotaku story, and the snippet as my story.

As the author behind the story, I'm utterly confused by this. The only thing that I didn't include that was said by Reggie in Kotaku's story was a "No" in response to Totilo's question "Is the Wii 2 a must for 2011?"

Then, the only other stuff from Reggie was the quote I used in my story.

So what is the difference between these two stories that makes it so vastly different? I agree this is one of those non-answer replies, but it is interesting to see Reggie make the comment that they won't even talk about Wii 2 until the Wii sells about 15 million units more.

Chozo GhostNovember 14, 2010

A good chunk of that 15 million units are going to be sold during the remainder of 2010. Hard to say how many, but with the NSMB bundle and other incentives it looks like the Wii is on track to sell I'd guess 2-4 million units in December. November sales might be 1-2 million, so add that up and that's about 1/3 of what Reggie says needs to sell. I don't doubt the remainder of that could be achieved by the end of 2011.

I did the research for the story, and the Wii, despite all of its sales success, has sold 30 million in a month or two shy of four years. Do you really think it's got the power to keep that pace up for two years? I don't.

BlackNMild2k1November 14, 2010

Quote from: NWR_Neal

I did the research for the story, and the Wii, despite all of its sales success, has sold 30 million in a month or two shy of four years. Do you really think it's got the power to keep that pace up for two years? I don't.

Did you really need to research that though? wasn't that stated by Reggie in the quote?


and for the record I think it's near impossible for Wii to keep pace with the 4 year average over the next year or two without some major price drops.
Bundles are good, but $200 is still $200 and most people that aren't willing to bite at $200 won't do it regardless of how many games you can throw in.

MaryJaneNovember 14, 2010

The Wii isn't selling like it used to, but it is still selling fairly well, and at E3 2011 we'll likely discover what titles Nintendo hopes will carry the Wii through the 2011 holiday. Any talk of the Wii2 beyond 'at E3 2012 we're going to show the Wii2' will hurt sales, and with Iwata saying how they want to try weekly incentives for people to buy the Wii why would they do anything to hurt sales? Nintendo has been making a profit on the Wii since day one, and they are going to squeeze that lemon dry, soak it in water and then squeeze it dry again. I would say expect a price drop around 3DS launch, and just a mention of the fact that the Wii2 is in the works at E3 2011. That seems to make the most sense financially, the Wii is still getting good games, it could be argued that its recently been getting even better games (Kirby, Goldeneye, COD etc.) so why stop now?

BnM, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Nintendo's competition dictate its previous consoles lifespans? Sony and MS are in no hurry to bring in successors, and for now, Nintendo still dominates in terms of lifetime sales, what reason do they have to release a new, not to mention expensive for them and casual consumers who are biggest base and likely unwilling to upgrade console? There is no need to abandon the Wii just yet, it is still printing money, unlike the N64 and GC at their ends, as someone else mentioned.

Personally, I took Reggie's quote to mean 3 things:
1. We want to sell a lot more Wiis
2. As Neal sort of surmised, we want to sell Wiis for another two years
3. We're not going to say anything about the Wii 2 until the number goal has been reached, or it becomes apparent that it isn't going to be reached


For all we know this could all be about Nintendo wanting to take the 'Best Selling Console of All-Time' title back from Sony, and the Wii is likely their best chance to do so, as casuals may feel that the Wii already gives them all they need for fitness, cooking, and a little bit fun when other people come over.

BlackNMild2k1November 14, 2010

There could be arguments made to support Nintendo going either way, but I'm not gonna say anyone is crazy for believing that they want to stretch this out for a long as possible just as I wouldn't call anyone delusional for thinking that maybe Nintendo wants to take advantage of a unique situation where their main competition is not in a position to launch a competing product at this time while also sticking to the traditional 5 year cycle.

I have no idea what Nintendo's plan is, but you also have to remember that all those people they plan on selling the remaining 15 million Wiis to are not likely the 30+million that they have already sold to, so providing new hardware might not eat into extended old hardware sales to the late adopters. The PS2 is still selling decently for being 10 years old afterall.

BnM - EDIT: Misread what you said, but regardless, here's a link that confirms the 30 million number I throw around, and backs up the simple math I used to deduce the theory that Reggie might be saying we won't be hearing anything until 2012 at the earliest.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31494/FilsAime_Holidays_More_Important_To_Nintendo_Than_Rivals.php

Thought I added that link to the story, but it looks like it didn't go through. Will update.

Kytim89November 14, 2010

The PS2 continued to sell farely well past its prime, so could the Wii do the same even after the Wii 2 is released? Also, I have a feeling that some kind of hard ware revisions in the same vein as the PS2 slim for the Wii would help move some units as well.

MaryJaneNovember 15, 2010

I'm all about the civil disagreement BnM and I think you have a good argument, but that same situation will be true next year and likely 2012 because of the high cost of developing HD games. And whether or not the targeted 15million are the same who would buy a Wii2 or not doesn't actually matter because Iwata believes that they are. He said something along the lines of, people waiting for a price drop or other incentive to buy the Wii, and I bet he intends to give them those incentives before announcing Wii2.

Just from personal observation, the driving forces of PS2 sales after the PS3 launch were the PS3's price, the slim version, and broken or breakin PS2's. Of course the impressive game library helped too...

Kytim89November 15, 2010

A Wii price drop coinciding with a price drop of Wii games from $50 to $40 could be a good enough incentive to move consoles.

thaantmanNovember 15, 2010

Nintendo is actually in a good position now. The reason nintendo isn't sweatin sony & microsoft motion scheme is because nintendo already dominated that area for the past four years. Wii is still the cheapest system on the market, and have plenty of good games this holiday season. The fact that wii basically being the inferior system outselling ps360 combine basically gives nintendo the head start to release their next home console when they please. The next console don't have to compete with ps3 & 360, because wii already doing that and is succeeding. The next console would be giving nintendo early revenue for the next gen of consoles. 2011 is definitely the last year for the wii, with already one zelda game and another on the way, not 1 but 2 major 3D mario games, NSMB, smash bros. 2 metriod games, a had full of mario party and sports games, animal crossing, wii fit & wii fit plus, a kirby and a dk game just released, I really don't see much on the horizon for first party games were definitely not getting another zelda or 3D mario adventures and doubt will see any more metroid, dk & kirby both just made their 1st official wii appearance and be surprised if we get anything from them so soon. All we have thus far is mario sport mix, skyword sword, and pikmin 3. With the 3DS coming out after the holiday rush this is nintendo's moment to completely put the spot light on themselves and you know nintendo is gonna make mad cash off the 3DS, they made the DS like 5 times over and look at how much their making off it. We will definitely here word of a wii successor by E3 whether it's a full blown description or a tease we will get some sort of info. 

Luigi DudeNovember 15, 2010

Quote from: BlackNMild2k1

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Here's a list of all of Nintendo first and second party studio's that actually developed games for the Wii are currently up to and what they've recently done.  I'm leaving out the studio's that only made games for the DS since I doubt Nintendo's going to suddenly have them start working on HD games when they weren't even making normal Wii games.

EAD 1 - Currently working on Mario Kart 3DS and Nintendogs + Cats.  Last game released was Mario Kart Wii over 2.5 years ago and before that was Mario Kart DS released 5 years ago.

EAD 2 - Currently working on Animal Crossing 3DS and Pilotwings Resort.  Last game released was Wii Sports Resort over a year ago, and before that was Animal Crossing Wii and Wii Music 2 years ago.

EAD 3 - Currently working on Skyward Sword and Ocarina of Time remake.  Last handheld Zelda was release almost 1 year ago but last home console Zelda was released 4 years ago.

EAD 4 - Currently rumored to be working on Pikmin 3 for the Wii since they did the New Play Control Pikmin ports.  Last game released was New Super Mario Bros Wii which was 1 year ago and before that was Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree over 3 years ago.

EAD 5 - Current development unknown.  Last released game was Wii Fit Plus a little over a year ago and before that was Wii Fit almost 3 years ago in Japan.

Tokyo EAD - Current project unknown.  Last game was Mario Galaxy 2 released 6 months ago and before that was Mario Galaxy released 3 years ago.

Intelligent Systems - Currently working on Paper Mario 3DS.  Last game released was Fire Emblem: Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS 4 months ago in Japan.  Last home console game though was Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn released over 3 years ago.

Monolith Soft - Current game unknown.  Last game was Xenoblade released 5 months ago in Japan, and before that was Disaster released 2 years ago.

Retro Studios - Currently working on Donkey Kong Country Returns which comes out in almost a week.  Last game before that was Metroid Prime 3 which was released 3 years ago.

Nd Cube - Just recently released Wii Party, can't find much on any of their previous games except for F-Zero Maximum Velocity for the GBA in 2001 and Tube Slider for the Gamecube in 2003.  Of course Nintendo just bought the entire company and recently turned it into a first party studio so I imagine it'll be getting more productive soon.

Creatures Inc - Current project unknown.  Recently released Pokemon Ranger: Guardian Signs for the DS and released PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Adventure for the Wii a year ago in Japan which was their first home console game since the canceled EarthBound 64.

Camelot - Recently released Golden Sun: Dark Dawn for the DS but they did make We Love Golf for Capcom on the Wii which was released almost 3 years ago.

Genius Sonority - Currently working on a Pokemon typing game for the DS.  Last Wii game to be released was Pokemon Battle Revolution in late 2006 and Dragon Quest Swords back in 2007 where they help assist Eighting in development.

Good Feel - Just released Kirby's Epic Yarn and before that was Wario Land Shake back in 2008.

Monster Games - Current Project unknown.  Last game released was Exitebots over 1.5 years ago and before that was Exite Trucks back in late 2006.

Next Level Games - Recently worked on several Wii titles, last one for Nintendo themselves was Punch-Out!! over 1.5 years ago and Mario Strikers Charged over 3 years ago.

Paon - Recent game unknown.  Last game was the Klonoa remake for the Wii which was released 2 years ago in Japan and before that was DK: Barrel Blast over 3 years.

Skip - Recent game unknown.  Last game was a Chibi Robo for the DS over a year ago that has stayed Japan only and for the Wii Captain Rainbow released over 2 years ago.



Based on the recent development history of all these studios, I just don't see how most of them could realistically have anything ready for a late 2011 or early 2012 launch.  Not to mention the studio's that haven't released any Wii games lately are mostly the lesser ones like Paon and Skip which point to them probably releasing normal Wii games in 2011 to help give the Wii some more support for 2011/early 2012 since Nintendo would not launch a new system on the backs of these developers.

GoldenPhoenixNovember 15, 2010

Quote from: Luigi

Quote from: BlackNMild2k1

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Here's a list of all of Nintendo first and second party studio's that actually developed games for the Wii are currently up to and what they've recently done.  I'm leaving out the studio's that only made games for the DS since I doubt Nintendo's going to suddenly have them start working on HD games when they weren't even making normal Wii games.

EAD 1 - Currently working on Mario Kart 3DS and Nintendogs + Cats.  Last game released was Mario Kart Wii over 2.5 years ago and before that was Mario Kart DS released 5 years ago.

EAD 2 - Currently working on Animal Crossing 3DS and Pilotwings Resort.  Last game released was Wii Sports Resort over a year ago, and before that was Animal Crossing Wii and Wii Music 2 years ago.

EAD 3 - Currently working on Skyward Sword and Ocarina of Time remake.  Last handheld Zelda was release almost 1 year ago but last home console Zelda was released 4 years ago.

EAD 4 - Currently rumored to be working on Pikmin 3 for the Wii since they did the New Play Control Pikmin ports.  Last game released was New Super Mario Bros Wii which was 1 year ago and before that was Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree over 3 years ago.

EAD 5 - Current development unknown.  Last released game was Wii Fit Plus a little over a year ago and before that was Wii Fit almost 3 years ago in Japan.

Tokyo EAD - Current project unknown.  Last game was Mario Galaxy 2 released 6 months ago and before that was Mario Galaxy released 3 years ago.

Intelligent Systems - Currently working on Paper Mario 3DS.  Last game released was Fire Emblem: Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS 4 months ago in Japan.  Last home console game though was Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn released over 3 years ago.

Monolith Soft - Current game unknown.  Last game was Xenoblade released 5 months ago in Japan, and before that was Disaster released 2 years ago.

Retro Studios - Currently working on Donkey Kong Country Returns which comes out in almost a week.  Last game before that was Metroid Prime 3 which was released 3 years ago.

Nd Cube - Just recently released Wii Party, can't find much on any of their previous games except for F-Zero Maximum Velocity for the GBA in 2001 and Tube Slider for the Gamecube in 2003.  Of course Nintendo just bought the entire company and recently turned it into a first party studio so I imagine it'll be getting more productive soon.

Creatures Inc - Current project unknown.  Recently released Pokemon Ranger: Guardian Signs for the DS and released PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Adventure for the Wii a year ago in Japan which was their first home console game since the canceled EarthBound 64.

Camelot - Recently released Golden Sun: Dark Dawn for the DS but they did make We Love Golf for Capcom on the Wii which was released almost 3 years ago.

Genius Sonority - Currently working on a Pokemon typing game for the DS.  Last Wii game to be released was Pokemon Battle Revolution in late 2006 and Dragon Quest Swords back in 2007 where they help assist Eighting in development.

Good Feel - Just released Kirby's Epic Yarn and before that was Wario Land Shake back in 2008.

Monster Games - Current Project unknown.  Last game released was Exitebots over 1.5 years ago and before that was Exite Trucks back in late 2006.

Next Level Games - Recently worked on several Wii titles, last one for Nintendo themselves was Punch-Out!! over 1.5 years ago and Mario Strikers Charged over 3 years ago.

Paon - Recent game unknown.  Last game was the Klonoa remake for the Wii which was released 2 years ago in Japan and before that was DK: Barrel Blast over 3 years.

Skip - Recent game unknown.  Last game was a Chibi Robo for the DS over a year ago that has stayed Japan only and for the Wii Captain Rainbow released over 2 years ago.



Based on the recent development history of all these studios, I just don't see how most of them could realistically have anything ready for a late 2011 or early 2012 launch.  Not to mention the studio's that haven't released any Wii games lately are mostly the lesser ones like Paon and Skip which point to them probably releasing normal Wii games in 2011 to help give the Wii some more support for 2011/early 2012 since Nintendo would not launch a new system on the backs of these developers.

Very informative post, thanks. Also remember Retro worked on the Metroid Prime Triliogy Port for Wii. Though who knows how big the team was behind it.

BlackNMild2k1November 15, 2010

I'm pretty sure no one has actually forgotten about this but I think we all know the Wii swan song will be DQX sometime in the latter half of 2011. Or atleast it's supposed to be... the game still hasn't been officially announced or revealed.

@MJ
I don't doubt that the Wii has lots of life left in it as there is lots of room for bargain gamers and late adopter price drops, but holding out for those people with no new compelling software from either 1st, 2nd or 3rd parties just because you don't want to release new hardware since there is no pressure to do so from looming next-gen consoles from the competition just doesn't seem like something Nintendo is gonna do. All that happens in that situation is Nintendo ends up losing some of the former faithfuls that were ready for the next big thing from Nintendo who then finally jump ship and just go buy a PS3 or 360 to get some real games.

The late adopters are always gonna be late adopters and bargain gamers will always be bargain gamers, they will always show up when the party is practically over or the store is closing and everything is on sale, so there is no reason to risk your money spending early adopters and core audiences just to hold out for the "maybe laters" and the "$20 or less" crowd.

I personally think that if the 3DS launch is a major success then we might be see Wii2 before FY2011 is over. I think certain devs have already been told targets and to aim for a Xmas 2011 just like they were told to aim for Xmas 2010 with the 3DS. The 3DS delay may have offset things a little, but I still think they may stick to that original plan as close of possible.

Just think if Nintendo launched Wii2 next year and MS doesn't release X720 till 2014/2015 and Sony rides it out till then too. Wii2 doesn't totally eclipse the PS360 completely due to diminishing returns, so they rely on their massive install bases compared to Wii2 to keep the profits rolling in long enough to get both departments back into the black. By the time they release their next gen systems, it could be time for another Nintendo refresh again.
I don't know how likely that is, but it's just one of may possible scenarios that could play to Nintendos advantage by releasing sooner rather than later.


edit:
@Luigi Dude
Thanks for all the info. But I'm sure all Nintendo really needs is 2-3 launch games and the full backing of key 3rd parties when the time comes and they could be well prepared for a late 2011/early 2012 launch. A Twilight Princessing(dual version) of Skyward Sword would probably help the launch out tremendously again too. I still thinks it's possible.

StogiNovember 15, 2010

Quote from: NWR_Neal

So what is the difference between these two stories that makes it so vastly different?

The whole feel of the story is vastly different. Yours seems more "factual" as if to take him at his word. But in the actual article, Kotaku makes a point to say that "This is just PR. Take it with a grain of salt." So while you have all the pertinent information, you have two completely different stories.

Chozo GhostNovember 15, 2010

Quote from: BlackNMild2k1

I'm pretty sure no one has actually forgotten about this but I think we all know the Wii swan song will be DQX sometime in the latter half of 2011. Or atleast it's supposed to be... the game still hasn't been officially announced or revealed.

I hate to say it, but its very possible that game could either get canceled or moved to another console. I know no one wants to hear that or admit it could happen, but it has happened so often in the past that we should steel ourselves to the possibility so we don't get too devastated if it happens yet again. That said, of course I'm hoping it doesn't, but you really never know...

Don't count your chickens until they've hatched.

ThomasONovember 15, 2010

Personally, I think that the fact we still haven't seen the Wii Vitality Sensor would indicate the next console isn't coming out for a while as Nintendo wouldn't spend too much time on a new peripheral for their current console when the next one is just around the corner. That, and the Wii Remote Plus as well. But... if the Wii 2 is backwards-compatible with all Wii software (and hardware), who knows?

TJ SpykeNovember 15, 2010

Quote from: Chozo

Quote from: BlackNMild2k1

I'm pretty sure no one has actually forgotten about this but I think we all know the Wii swan song will be DQX sometime in the latter half of 2011. Or atleast it's supposed to be... the game still hasn't been officially announced or revealed.

I hate to say it, but its very possible that game could either get canceled or moved to another console. I know no one wants to hear that or admit it could happen, but it has happened so often in the past that we should steel ourselves to the possibility so we don't get too devastated if it happens yet again. That said, of course I'm hoping it doesn't, but you really never know...

Don't count your chickens until they've hatched.

I wouldn't be that cynical, they just announced the game way earlier than they usually do. Dragon Quest games don't tend to come out that close to each other and I wouldn't be surprised to not see it come out until 2012 (remember that VII came out after the PlayStation 2 was already released, and it was a PlayStation 1 game).

xcwarriorNovember 15, 2010

Good, we do not need another system yet. There are too many good games that all of the above commenters have not yet bought that they need to play.

I own 46 Wii games and I still have others I want to buy. And I still have a bunch of them I need to finish. The system is still selling just fine. Even if its not #1 each month in sales, its still selling well. It just looks bad compared to what it was. Ask Sony if they would like to swap sales with the Wii even right now.

MaryJaneNovember 15, 2010

@BnM You make some good points that are definitely feasible, and I think a March 2012 launch is possible but at E3 2011 the 3DS will have been out for 4 months already meaning their whole conference will be about software, and maybe 3DS/Wii integration (3DS as a controller anyone?). My point being, then and only then will we really get a clear view of whether Nintendo's plans for the Wii(2) are what Iwata and Reggie have been telling us or if it's a smoke screen. For now I'm taking them at their word because financially it makes sense as the Wii is still selling strong. If this holiday's sales are weak, and the weekly incentives don't pan out, I think a FY2011 will be necessary, but if those ideas work and 3DS compatibility boosts console sales significantly, Nintendo might even be able to wait for March 2013, since as you say MS and Sony are likely going to launch their next consoles in 2014-2015.

The lack of 1st party titles could be Nintendo's gift to 3rd parties who are weary of seeing their titles take a back seat on the Wii, and want their titles in the forefront of consumers minds which leads into my next point brought up by ThomasO:

With EA pushing their own vitality sensor peripheral (that NFL game actually looks cool especially with online leader boards) I wonder if Nintendo is rethinking or retooling that one. I don't know how EA managed to beat them to the punch, but they have been beaten, and it might be better for them to support EA's peripheral with software rather than trying to follow them, something Nintendo is not fond of doing. And it would also give 3rd parties a vote of confidence that Nintendo will be faithful in their support and plans to become more 3rd party friendly as evidenced by the 3DS.

Ian SaneNovember 15, 2010

I think a Wii 2 in 2011, following the normal five year cycle, is ideal and realistically is what Nintendo should be aiming for.  I've always felt the Wii is an overachiever.  It's pretty much the Gamecube with a new controller that in 90% of the games is just used for gimmicky waggle.  Meanwhile the third party support is complete and utter trash.  Nintendo is totally carrying the Wi on their back right now while consoles with significantly less sales get all the third party support.  Too much of this strategy relies on targetting casuals that are too ignorant to notice these huge issues.  The Wii has been like the Wizard of Oz this whole time with the risk of the curtain being pulled.  I'm of the idea that Nintendo is damn lucky this sort of stuff didn't matter and that now that the chance to fix things is here they should take it.  They can have improved motion control, up-to-date graphics and decent third party support, and since 2011 is the expected time frame for a new console they don't create any ill will by jumping the gun.  The Wii had a full life and was the market leader.  Mission accomplished.

The 3DS is the Wii's biggest threat.  Unlike the PS3 and Xbox 360 it will grab the interest of the casual market.  All those Wii owners that are blissfully ignorant of the Wii's flaws will notice them once they get a 3DS which has no such flaws.  How come this portable has better graphics than this console?  How come all these games are available on the 3DS but not the Wii?  We'll see third party franchises that are popular on the other consoles come to the 3DS.  So you're Mr. Wii-only and you get a 3DS and you try out this Street Fighter IV and it's pretty damn good.  These series is now on your radar so while in Best Buy you notice that the same game is on the PS3 and Xbox 360, but not on the Wii.  3DS owners will become interested in third party series on their portable and then look into what other games are in the series and it will become apparent that the Wii has pretty much NONE of these.  Healthy third party support for the 3DS will bring Nintendo users to the PS3 and Xbox 360.

I don't think Move or Kinect are much of a threat to the Wii directly.  But they do, in theory, remove the Wii's ace in the hole.  Motion control was the only thing that made the Wii stand out.  In terms of just plain features the PS3 now beats the Wii in EVERYTHING.  There is nothing the Wii has that the PS3 doesn't and the PS3 has MORE.  The Xbox 360 is not quite as comparable as Kinect is quite different.  I don't think they'll be that successful but if they were it would expose the Wii further.  Any casual gamer that does buy either Move or Kinect will become familiar with the corresponding system and, like with the 3DS, realize that the Wii's graphic don't compare and that there are all these games on their new console that are not on the Wii.

In 2011 Nintendo can introduce the Wii 2 and not lose momentum.  Even if you think the Wii still has legs should Nintendo wait until it doesn't to go with the Wii 2?  Ideally they shouldn't want to wait until the Wii has been milked dry but make the transition while there is still a bit of life left.  That gives them a smooth transition, rather than losing ground with an diminishing Wii and then having to rebuild with the Wii 2.

Got a news tip? Send it in!
Advertisement
Advertisement