Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction)

[Khushrenada]

I forgot to post the most accurate prediction in this thread!

Go ahead and bet against Nintendo. We'll just sit back and watch. And we'll laugh at you if they sell more than 5 million units in the first 12 months.

Congrats Agent-X! You were the real prophet all along.

[Mop it up]

Hee hee yeah, my initial gut reaction was pretty bad, I usually try to wait until things settle down first. I'm pretty sure I stated that the Wii U would be another runaway success, which was based mostly on pre-orders selling out. Whoops! Admittedly I'm kind of baffled the Switch has sold as well as it has, but I won't get into that.

Third-party and indie stuff has increased sure, but it's still the same types of support Nintendo's been getting. This is straying from the original point anyway, that the context of my original comment in its conversation is still mostly true as Nintendo doesn't have third-party support the way they used to 20+ years ago. Taking that out of context seems to have caused some confusion, but I suspect that was your goal! 

Square has supported other successful Nintendo systems with older FF titles like GBA and DS, so I actually wasn't that surprised they supported the successful Switch as well, especially with Sony systems out of the equation. I'm honestly kind of surprised that Activision hasn't tried a Call of Duty game on the Switch, as the Wii got most of them, and even the Wii U and DS got some. Ubisoft seems scared to try some of their "big" games that they tried on Wii U as well, such as Assassin's Creed and Watch Dogs, though I think they may have done a "cloud version" or something of an Assassin's Creed game?

Personally I haven't played and didn't own most of the games Switch gets so I've been pretty happy with it overall.

[Adrock]

And then there's this "prediction"...

To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

*Angry buzzer sound* WRONG!! Nintendo only got around 14 million Switchs sold in its first year. What a maroon! Maybe next time try and stay within reality when making a prediction.

I know you’re joking. For context: Not-Miyamoto predicted Switch would struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales to which I replied it might reach that in its first year. I was pretty close.

That wasn’t even remotely my coldest take on these forums. For example, I vaguely remember stating Wii U should easily outsell GameCube.

Me after launch day vs. literally three months later

[NWR_insanolord]

The recent news of the Switch passing the Wii in lifetime sales made me think of this thread again. There have been a lot of wrong things said on these forums over the years, but this has got to be up there.

[Khushrenada]

LOL! It's not March 3rd yet! You couldn't wait two weeks for the traditional bump? 

[NWR_insanolord]

I didn't realize it was a tradition. I just thought the Switch officially becoming Nintendo's most successful console ever justified dunking on this guy again.

[Khushrenada]

Well, it is now another year of the Switch on the market and another year of Miyamoto gloating at us all for not seeing the complete failure the Switch has been like he was able to before it released.

It's March 3rd so you know what that means!!!!

Thread bump time.

Because of his complete absence ... I've been more willing to keep bumping this thread on the Switch anniversary ... I'll keep bumping this thread [until] a Switch 2 (or whatever system Nintendo releases to replace the Switch) comes out on the market

Kind of thought I was making it clear that it was becoming a tradition for me to bump it on March 3rd. That said, don't let me take away the joy bumping this thread may give you since I know you were the one that finally had it with his non-stop insistence that he was going to be right about the Switch and locked the thread because of it. Personally, I think I've done all I can at this point anyways to make him eat his words especially after last year. Wow, did I find new ways to mock his pessimistic predictions. So, go ahead and celebrate the sales with some schadenfreude.

And since a Switch is starting to look like its never coming, I guess there'll be more bumps for this thread yet after all!

[Khushrenada]

And here, I'll even unlock the topic again so other users besides mods can post in it. I used to think it was worth keeping locked in case he came back and tried to delete his posts on it but at this point they've been quoted so much by others that they'd still be preserved.

[Mop it up]

Nintendo will never again release a new Mario game.

[ThePerm]

When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.

Wait, WHAT? Where can I get one of these 2019 $99 Switch consoles? Slashing the price by 66% in two years?! Someone was really hating on the Switch and expecting it to crash and burn over its first two years!

Guys c'mon. The Switch ain't dropping to $99 on 2019.

Get out of here Soren! We don't need no correct predictions in this thread. Let's stick to the crazy talk here!

So, in 2 years there is going to be a  portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.

That's right! Double down on that prediction. Not only will it be $99 but it will even have more features then the launch version of the Switch! ThePerm, what were you thinking?!

I can't think of anyone that would predict Nintendo having a console at $99 would be a super successful strategy!

in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

You see! Predicting an $80 dongle is much more realistic. That's how Nintendo will truly profit and become a force in the game industry again.

Well if you account for inflation the Switch Lite price at its price point of $199 in 2019 would be really close under The Price is Right rules  .  I mean $150 in 2017 is $156 in 2019.  $150 would be $172 in 2022 because 14.7% inflation.

[Luigi Dude]

Plus you seem to forget this is basically a hybrid that will be combining all of Nintendo's resources so the handheld won't be eating away at the home console anymore since both will now be the same.  You can't forget the over 60 million 3DS owners that this thing is going to be appealing to since it's a 3DS successor as well.

I'm going to quote myself again because this the biggest reason why it was foolish for anyone to think the Switch was going to be another Wii U.  The 3DS, despite it's own short comings, was still a successful system.  The system ended up selling close to 76 million units, and even at the time of the Switch reveal it was well over 60 million.  It had a Mario Kart, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, 2D and 3D Mario games that were all 10 million plus sellers.

Even now when the Switch recently surpassed the Wii and PS1, so many across the internet were saying how surprised they were it did that.  It's like, the 3DS was less then 25 million away from hitting the 100 million mark.  With the Switch fixing many of the 3DS problems as well, it would have been a greater shock if the Switch didn't pass the 100 million mark.

It shows just many in the internet bubble have literally so little respect for handheld gaming that these handheld systems don't even exist to them.  Many made a big deal out of how it'd be impossible for the Switch to surpass the Wii because the Wii had all the media hype around it back when it first came out, completely forgetting that the DS which was on the market at the same time, sold over 50 million more units despite never getting close to the same level of media hype either.

[Order.RSS]

Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.

Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.

Ah yes, there I am, conservatively estimating the Switch to sell N64 amounts of hardware.
Luckily we don't have a Clown Face emoji here.

I was definitely quite skeptical around launch. It had like five games tops in the first week(s), and I thought 1-2 Switch indicated they were trying to recapture the Wii magic, which I thought would flop.
Five years later they've already outsold the Wii before even wheeling out the Wii Sports revival. Lot of egg on my face.

[NWR_insanolord]

The results of the last fiscal quarter are out, and the Switch has officially passed the Game Boy to become Nintendo’s second-highest selling system ever at 122.55 million units. It has a real shot to be #1, needing 31 million and change to pass the DS, which seems doable at this point. 

[Luigi Dude]

The results of the last fiscal quarter are out, and the Switch has officially passed the Game Boy to become Nintendo’s second-highest selling system ever at 122.55 million units. It has a real shot to be #1, needing 31 million and change to pass the DS, which seems doable at this point. 

At this point it's pretty much guaranteed.  As we see from the recent hardware and software sales, the system still has a lot of momentum yet.  Nintendo says the main reason for hardware sales being down last year was because of supply chain issues, and the software sales were pretty much flat from the previous year, which is pretty insane for a system that was in it's 6th year on the market.

Seriously, if Pokemon Scarlet/Violet could sell over 20 million in less then 2 months, and it was the sequel to Sword and Shield which did over 25 million, then Tears of the Kingdom is going to be just as big since Breath of the Wild did 29 million on Switch, with another million plus on the Wii U.  Tears of the Kingdom will pretty much dominate all gaming conversations in May and June giving the Switch a lot of attention again.

I also think there's a good chance we'll be getting a new 2D Mario at the end of this year that will be huge.  Seriously, NSMB U Deluxe is now close to 15 million on the Switch.  If we get a brand new 2D Mario that's seen as the next evolution for the franchise, you're looking at an easy 30 million seller, like NSMB DS and Wii were.

Plus they still have the price cut card they can play, to give them a boast.  The Switch is still $300 with it's best selling games from launch being sold for $60.  If Nintendo decides to cut the price to $250, or hell, down to $200 and games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Breath of the Wild are now being sold for $20-30 that right there will get a lot of people to finally jump on board as well.

[ThePerm]

It's kind of amazing Nintendo hasn't done enormous price cut's to boost sales and it's still one of their best of all time.

[Luigi Dude]

It's kind of amazing Nintendo hasn't done enormous price cut's to boost sales and it's still one of their best of all time.

Well that's what happens when Nintendo combined their home and handhelds divisions to create a system that has all the strengths of both, with none of the weaknesses.  It also helps that Microsoft and Sony aren't even trying to compete with the Switch, giving Nintendo a complete monopoly on a hybrid gaming system.  Also the rest of the industry isn't even trying to compete with Nintendo in terms of the games they develop.  People love to bitch about Pokemon but both games on the Switch were 20 million plus sellers.  What are Microsoft and Sony trying to do that could appeal to that Pokemon audience?  They ain't doing anything so if those 20 million plus people want an experience like Pokemon, you have to buy a Switch.

Also helps that Nintendo made a system that was easy to port this time as well.  That's why the vast majority of indie games hit the system, and even a good number of major triple AAA titles have been ported to the Switch, despite originally being developed for more powerful hardware.  So not only has Nintendo been able to provide a constant supply of their own unique games, but they have a ton of third party as well.  Because of this there hasn't been any droughts in the systems lifespan, which has given it insane momentum.  Even now when the year to year sales have been declining, it's still been a small decline, which Nintendo has even said some of that decline is do to supply issues as well.

When you add this all up, the system is an unstoppable monster.

[Oedo]

With the Switch successor rumours starting to gain steam, I was randomly reminded of this thread. What an absolute gem. Going from "10 million lifetime sales" to being within a stone's throw of PS2 and DS for the best-selling system of all time when it's all said and done. Truly an underdog story if ever there was one.

I hope our friend makes a comeback for his Switch 2 predictions.

[Evan_B]

Y’all, I *am* a hater, and I’m worried about the Switch 2. Is it doomed to fail? What does failure look like for a successor to one of the highest selling consoles of all time?

[Adrock]

What does failure look like for a successor to one of the highest selling consoles of all time?

“BY GAWD, THAT’S WII U’s MUSIC!�

Then again, there’s also DS to 3DS. It’s wild that Nintendo had successors of two of its most successful platforms perform in vastly different ways within the same time frame.

Nintendo’s success rate with successor platforms is pretty strong so while it’s completely understandable too be skeptical, I’m not. A Switch successor is like the easiest layup in the world. Not impossible to screw up, but like Nintendo would have to go so far out of its way to do so.

[Khushrenada]

The next Nintendo System:

"We are pleased to introduce a new way to play videogames. We hope you look forward to our new system which will be launching with Super Mario Bros. Theremin and Metroid Prime 4: Gestures. We will introduce many more theremin controlled games in the months to come. Now let's see the system in action!"



"Looking good!"

[RABicle]

Failure of GameCube
SUCCESS OF WII
Failure of WiiU
SUCCESS OF SWITCH
big think, I wonder how Switch 2 will turn out

[NWR_insanolord]

I think Adrock's got the right idea here. This is probably a DS to 3DS situation. A largely iterative hardware improvement (outside the 3D screen, which was admittedly pushed pretty hard), that was successful in its own right, but not to the crazy degree of its predecessor.

[Dinar87]

It's funny looking back at posts like these predicting the switch would fail. Back then the wii u was such a disappointment and flop that a lot of us probably got caught up in that.

The switch's first party games are infinitely better than the wii u's though.

[Luigi Dude]

It's funny looking back at posts like these predicting the switch would fail. Back then the wii u was such a disappointment and flop that a lot of us probably got caught up in that.

The switch's first party games are infinitely better than the wii u's though.

Even back then using the Wii U's failure as a reason to think the Switch would also fail was laughable when the 3DS had a decent run.  When the Switch was first announced the 3DS sales were over 60 million, and had several 10 million plus sellers on the system.  The 3DS showed the many of Nintendo's franchises were still pretty popular, it's just people weren't willing to buy both a 3DS and Wii U to play them.  So with the Switch making Nintendo's games appear on only one system, the worst case scenario for the Switch was always going to put it closer to the 3DS in sales then the Wii U.

[Evan_B]

Plus, the 3DS had an insanely miserable launch and still managed to be a success overall. I find that wild, but it’s pretty cool.