Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction)

[Fatty The Hutt]

Thank you for taking the time to reply but these really are too wordy to read through let alone reply to, so I'm just going to assume that you've all made some very good points. Well done.

But you're not going to read them cuz they're too wordy. Or maybe you're afraid of the content? I'd lay some money on the latter.

Oh, except the delusional poster who tried to argue that the Switch had decent third party support.

Oh, so you did read some of it. Alright, any rebuttal?

I mean, c'mon dude. No.

That's it?
**slow clap**
Brilliant, dude. Your sheer ass-hattery is complete. Kudos.

[NWR_insanolord]

Doing what I should have done three months ago.

[Khushrenada]

Speaking of the Switch's 1 year anniversary, let's never forget Miya"Mr.Correct"moto who knew exactly how the Switch's first year was going to play out. He correctly figured it out 3 months before the Switch launch.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

[Khushrenada]

I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent... I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales

[Khushrenada]

It reminds of when Kimishima was interviewed by the Wall Street journal shortly after the Switch announcement. They asked him why he thought Nintendo's shares had dropped 8% following the reveal and he had no answer. He was genuinely baffled. These people really can't see the problems ahead and are doomed to make similar mistakes that they did with the Wii U. The future of mobile gaming IS mobile phones. If Nintendo wanted to do well in the mobile market they should release a bluetooth controller for $20 that holds the phone and distribute games that way. Yes they have to give a slice of the profits to Apple/Android but at least there's profits to share. This will not be a widely used portable gaming console, so what does that leave? An underpowered home console with added manufacturing costs and weak third party support. Wake up people! The breadcrumbs are so close together on this one, how can you not see the way this is going to go?

[bold and italics my addition]

Wake up Sheeple!!! Follow the money!

[Khushrenada]

We get it, you are right, Nintendo is doomed.

I may remember you favourably, my child, when the gloating doth commence.

Oh crap! You better run and hide now, Evan_B!!! You're in a world of pain! Miyamoto's about to drop the gloat bomb on you!

[Khushrenada]

I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent and even though Nintendo already has a library of thousands of games over three decades, they will choose to either not make it all readily available or charge too much for it. I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales and in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

Well, it is now another year of the Switch on the market and another year of Miyamoto gloating at us all for not seeing the complete failure the Switch has been like he was able to before it released. All hail Miyamoto who put it so succinctly:

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

If only we or Nintendo had listened to him. Instead we must now suffer our yearly shame of Miyamoto's "I Told You So"s because, as the new Reggie, his predictions kicked ass and he took our names....

If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.

What were we thinking......

[Mop it up]

I think it might be time to let this go and move on.

[Khushrenada]

Hey now! I'm not the villain of this thread.    Plus, I didn't even bump it last year.   

[NWR_insanolord]

I, for one, appreciate Khush being this petty. I'd forgotten all about this thread and seeing it bumped gave me a good chuckle.

[Khushrenada]

It's March 3rd so you know what that means!!!!

Thread bump time. (Although some people may disagree about doing so.)

I think it might be time to let this go and move on.

However, I think it is just because people like that above poster don't want other users to re-read this thread and see all their failed predictions like:

it's hard for me to envision the Switch selling well.

And:

As far as third-party support goes... It's been over 20 years now. They're not coming back.

Perhaps you shouldn't have been a hater! Then people wouldn't be able to look at your past comments and see how wrong you are today! When looking back at these Switch predications, I think those may be some of the most anti-Switch success comments in the whole thing. 

But seriously, if people don't like me bumping this thread and posting in it then please contact the original poster of this thread, Miyamoto, because I'm only doing what he asked us to do.

Please feel free to keep posting comments on this thread. It would be a shame for it to disappear. So until next time... Happy Switch Day!!!!!!

No problem, boss. I'll do my part to make sure it doesn't disappear! 

[Khushrenada]

It's incredible to look back and see how poorly people saw this whole Switch fiasco playing out. I mean, I'm just cherry picking at this point but look at this dude trying to counter the argument of why the Switch will flop:

The only way the Switch does that bad is if Nintendo ... refuses to drop the price for 4 years like they did with the Wii U.

Well, here we are 4 years later and what's the price of a Switch?! What's that? It's still the same price as WHEN IT LAUNCHED?!? So, you're telling me Nintendo pulled another Wii U and didn't lower the price of the system even after 4 years on the market? Who does that?! What a greedy company! You wouldn't see Sony launch a Playstation 4 Pro and then keep it at the same sell price 4 years later. No wonder people won't buy a Switch when Nintendo refuses to meet the demands of the market by lowering the price of the Switch.

I think that Nintendo ended up regretting the low Wii launch price. Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are, I bet they wished they raised the Wii price by at least $50 at launch, failing to take into account that it was precisely the low price point that helped sell the console. This is probably why the 3DS and Wii U were so overly priced at launch.


I had no idea what the price would be when I predicted the demise of the Switch back in December, but I assumed $250 at the most. The $300 price tag only cements the console's doom. I can't feel too bad for Nintendo though, because all of this was entirely avoidable. You would think that a multi-billion dollar company would employ some people with a bit of basic common sense at the top.

Oh, good! At least someone gets it! Man, if only Nintendo listened to the basic common sense of this guy instead of relying on their internal teams of marketing and research with business degrees and experience on how to sell the Switch. How come it is so hard for people to ignore the recommendations of those with actual qualifications instead of listening to people without any, ignoring their "common sense" which could have solved everything?

[Khushrenada]

And then there's this "prediction"...

To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

*Angry buzzer sound* WRONG!! Nintendo only got around 14 million Switchs sold in its first year. What a maroon! Maybe next time try and stay within reality when making a prediction. Like here's an example of someone who made a prediction way closer to reality because they based it on cold, hard logic:

I think Nintendo will definitely sell through their launch allotment (2 million) by the end of March, but I also think a year later in March 2018 Nintendo will be lucky if they're at 5 million.

Now that's nailing it!

[Khushrenada]

I mean granted I'm by no means an expert ... Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

Don't worry! From that prediction, it's pretty obvious to all that you are not an expert.

BURN!!!

Given Nintendo's track record with things like DS, Wii and GBA, wouldn't something like 100 million make more sense?




Looks like it would! But someone wanted to be a hater! Not going to take off like the Wii? IT'S BREAKING SALES RECORDS SET BY THE WII!


Miyamoto, show this fool what an expert prediction maker looks like!

this thing is dead on arrival. I'll still be pre-ordering one, but so far, everything is right on track as I predicted...

Who looks foolish now, Discord.RSS?

[Khushrenada]

When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.

Wait, WHAT? Where can I get one of these 2019 $99 Switch consoles? Slashing the price by 66% in two years?! Someone was really hating on the Switch and expecting it to crash and burn over its first two years!

Guys c'mon. The Switch ain't dropping to $99 on 2019.

Get out of here Soren! We don't need no correct predictions in this thread. Let's stick to the crazy talk here!

So, in 2 years there is going to be a  portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.

That's right! Double down on that prediction. Not only will it be $99 but it will even have more features then the launch version of the Switch! ThePerm, what were you thinking?!

I can't think of anyone that would predict Nintendo having a console at $99 would be a super successful strategy!

in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

You see! Predicting an $80 dongle is much more realistic. That's how Nintendo will truly profit and become a force in the game industry again.

[Khushrenada]

I'm really hoping for whatever Retro is making.

Not really an incorrect prediction. I just feel sorry for Stogi waiting for Retro's first Switch game.

[Khushrenada]

To wrap up this trip down memory lane...

I'll probably come back to this thread periodically as news regarding how well the Switch is doing starts to trickle through.

Don't get me wrong, I really want the Switch to be a success, and I'd love to be posting here in a couple of years time about how I got it massively wrong, but I find it really hard to be optimistic.

Last Post: Mar. 3, 2017
Last Active: Mar. 5, 2018

I guess he didn't want to be here posting about how he got it massively wrong and is happy the Switch is a success. My god. He spent 3 months posting about how things were going to go for the Switch and himself and he didn't get anything right!!

[MASB]

His last post was the day the Switch launched and he last visited two days after its first anniversary. Did its success hit him that hard? In fact, he never logged in again after the first time you brought this topic back to life. :p I would say you drove him away, but I guess he did that to himself. He's just biding his time, waiting for the Switch to fall!

[MASB]

Still, you'd think Miyamoto would have had more faith in the Switch. I guess he spent too much time listening to Ishihara from The Pokemon Company!

[Mop it up]

That first comment wasn't a prediction, it was my personal thought about the ho-hum Switch reveal trailer. Things got better after more information was revealed. It's funny how few people around the 'Net saw the Switch coming!

As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.

[Luigi Dude]

As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.

If your talking about AAA games aimed at the West that's mostly true but mid-tier Japanese games and indie titles are a massive improvement over previous systems.  The Switch absorbed the PSP/Vita's audience in Japan which has lead to a major shift in third party support over there.  Outside of the few series that still try to compete with AAA Western devs, almost everything else in Japan has gotten Switch ports.

With indies, the Switch is literally the market leader.  Not only does every major title come to Switch, many are even timed exclusives on the system.  Many indie devs have done nothing but praise the system for giving their games the highest sales as well.  This is a huge step up from the Wii and Wii U which missed out on a large number of indie games.

[Mop it up]

When people mentioned third-party support, I think the context was the big companies, not indies. These days there are a lot of blurred lines between "third-party" and "indie" so it can sometimes be tough to figure out these generalities. It seemed like the Wii U and 3DS still got a lot of indie stuff so that remains a constant. 3DS and DS still had a fair amount of Japanese support.

[pokepal148]

The 3DS pretty much just had Atlus and Capcom past year two in the west, and I have a hard time believing that either company was putting their best foot forward at that point, largely because the 3DS was so cheap to develop for. Everything else that came over was published by Nintendo in the west as I recall.

But the Switch is getting a bunch of ports of recent-ish games like the Spyro: Reignited Trilogy that nobody ever bothered with for the Wii U or even the Wii.

And even Indies are massively improved. With the Wii U and 3DS there was always a question of whether a game would come to 3DS or Wii U because the non-new 3DS lacked engine support and the Wii U was... the Wii U. Even games that were promised for the Wii U like Project Cars never materialized. With the Switch it is the opposite. If anything it's surprising when a game isn't coming to Switch.

[Khushrenada]

His last post was the day the Switch launched and he last visited two days after its first anniversary. Did its success hit him that hard? In fact, he never logged in again after the first time you brought this topic back to life. :p I would say you drove him away, but I guess he did that to himself. He's just biding his time, waiting for the Switch to fall!

Well, to be fair, Insanolord locked this thread after his last post on that March 3rd so he couldn't really reply back in it if he wanted to. That said, I imagine he was lurking for a bit and biding his time for the first couple months after the Switch launch for news to start coming in of the system not selling. Instead, there were reports of NOA shipping in more consoles by Air which was pricier but they needed to meet the huge demand and then that demand never went down. I did bump the thread after the first year but I didn't unlock it like I did now. Perhaps he checked in close to that time and saw that this thread was back up on the top of the forums but decided he didn't want to get a bunch of flak and ridicule like I gave him for a couple posts at that time. Because of his complete absence after all his haughty talk and not sticking around to eat his crow or humble pie after saying he would gladly like that to happen, I've been more willing to keep bumping this thread on the Switch anniversary. However, if he is still out there and checking these boards as a guest then I'll let him know he can one day rest easy and not fear that I'll keep bumping this thread once a Switch 2 (or whatever system Nintendo releases to replace the Switch) comes out on the market because who cares about predictions on a console that's now obsolete.

[Khushrenada]

That first comment wasn't a prediction, it was my personal thought about the ho-hum Switch reveal trailer. Things got better after more information was revealed. It's funny how few people around the 'Net saw the Switch coming!

As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.

Oh, look how the hater's try to justify that their predictions were something else or that they were still right! Move those goalposts instead of admitting you were wrong!!   

I mainly just used those quotes as a way to start the tactic of showing other wrong predictions that still weren't as bad as Miyamoto's. It's obviously some selective quoting to do that. I also agree with you that when I think 3rd Parties, I don't think of Indies. Still, having stuff like Cuphead and the Ori games come to Switch is a big deal considering Microsoft is the one backing those games. To me, that's still a third party get. Having Bethesda support the Switch with Wolfenstein, Doom and Skyrim is a pretty significant thing considering how long they've ignored Nintendo consoles. At the same time, I wasn't expecting Square to release Kingdom Hearts 3 or FFVII remake on Switch nor Rockstar to port GTAV or Red Dead Redemption 2 to the Switch. Some third parties are just going to keep skipping Nintendo based on their own internal decisions and how much effort they want to put in making their stuff work on Nintendo's weaker hardware.

That said, I still thought it was a big deal for Square to release a bunch of older FF games on the Switch along with other offerings like DQ games and Mana games. Seeing BioShock and Borderland games come to a Nintendo console is another unexpected surprise. I get that stuff may not be too impressive now after they were first released years ago but its still good to see these other publishers testing the waters with Switch and seeing they can have sales success on a Nintendo platform. Hopefully it creates positive thinking with third parties to do factor Nintendo into their future plans instead of sticking with the skip it mindset that's been happening for so long.

What big third party games or publishers do you see as signs that third party software has not improved?