Topic: Why June will kick Sony's ass (speculation)

[The Omen]

http://news.spong.com/article/9802  Sure, Spong is almost always wrong, but on that rare occasion, they are right with huge events.  What if this article had merit?

For once, Nintendo gets the nature of this business.  For the first time since the NES era, Nintendo is being aggressive and forceful in the market.  Releasing the Rev. in June would ultimately prove to be successful for two reasons. 1) They beat Sony to the punch by a full 5 months.  Those 5 months would give players a chance to give the Rev a full 'test' run before the PS3, and at the very least, build a nice size userbase.  2) At the time of the PS3's launch, the Rev games will be entering their second cycle, and be much more polished than those at launch.  A Zelda and Kid Icarus title, or perhaps an Advanced Wars, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart or FZero with full online capabilities would be the ultimate Christmas gifts, don't you think?  And in turn, they offset the huge sales of the PS3 with huge sales of their own, which would be counted as a victory where I come from.  After the holiday sales die down and the smoke clears, Nintendo loses only a small sliver of it's market share to Sony, but MS loses more, seeing as the tech heads would go for either of these two systems, and the PS3 is the new toy, MS takes the hit, enabling the Revolution to be #1 with a bullet.

And we dance around in our villages, singing the praises of a world gone right for once.

[Ian Sane]

June seems really soon.  E3 is in May.  Are they realistically going to launch a month after E3?

A head start would be good provided they make use of it.  Microsoft's head start for example is a waste of time so far because of system shortages.

[Kairon]

I'd just like to go on record that if the Rev launched as late as October or November, I would feel a solid disappointment with Nintendo.

The Rev doesn't have fickle and cranky bleeding edge built-from-scrath technology like the PS3. It should be easy to manufacture, easy to launch earlier.

The Rev is purported to be very easy to develop on. If it's so easy, why does Nintendo need 1.5 years (starting from E3 2005) to create software for it? If you could start development on GC Dev kits, why shouldn't third parties be in the same boat?

The Rev is more down-to-earth, cheaper hardware and an exceedingly simple development platform. That should allow a late Spring or summer 06 launch, both via hardware simplicity and software development ease.

For Nintendo to squander that opportunity with the Revolution, for it to miss out on two potential benefits from the Rev's qualities that have been so touted elsewhere as potential weaknesses...

Well, I'm willing to go on record that I can almost take an Ian-like stance on the subject if Nintendo launches in October or November. It would be an enormous waste if all the things they've said about the rev's ease and cheapness went to waste in not launching earlier.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Caliban]

Ian, if you have been reading news from the other systems you would see that soon there won't be anymore shortages for the X360 which will be good for them 'cause there is still a long way until the PS3 is released.

As for the Revolution being released in June, I doubt it, but if it happens it is happy news for me 'cause my NGC has been collecting alot of dust (and it's not because there aren't games to play it with, I still have plenty to finish and buy).

[thejeek]

Yeah - June would be good but I can't see it - they're just not gonna have enough launch titles given the devkit situation (unless they're sandbagging on that)

[Zach]

*crosses fingers* June 9, June 9, June 9 (that would make it the best birthday EVAR!!!) June 9 June 9...........   bah, seriously, I doubt it would release this soon, so I will not keep my hopes up untill an actualy release date is announced, but still, it would be really cool.

[Hostile Creation]

I'd be flabberghasted if they released it that early.
Which isn't necessarily bad.  It means I'd have a summer to play the Revolution and to catch up on all the games I've missed (since I'm guaranteed a high paying job this summer).

[Spak-Spang]

June is way too early.

I could see August.  Give developers two months with the final Development Kits so that 3rd party games could be ready to go.  A Mid August launch would give about a 3 month head start on Sony which would be big, and provide Nintendo with enough time to launch its games.

Personally I don't believe the decision will be based on production of the Revolution, because I believe that could start any day now and be set.  I believe that it all depends when Nintendo's own games are finished for launch.  If Nintendo could launch with 3 strong first party games in June, then I believe Nintendo would do it.  

However, I think it is going to take till August to have those 3 games ready...and in fact we may see ourselves with 4-5 first party games ready by then and some third party support.

I am willing to bet that Nintendo is currently pushing for an early launch than November after Sony's announced date.

[Ceric]

If Nintendo released in June.  From what I've read they would start out with only 1st party support and trivial 3rd party support.  Think DS launch but worse, and I liked Feel the Magic.    Now on the flipside that doesn't mean that they couldn't start getting units out there.  In an unprecedented move they could ship "Demo" units.  Pretty much it would be a Revolution shell showing and they Cube hardware hidden actually running the show with the wireless style setup.  We now the controller works with the cube.  This way if someone grabs it they don't have an early Rev they just have a modified cube.  It would even just use the Mini DVD's.  This to me, or something similar, seems like a more realistic scenario.

That being said my Cube is a dieing so I really wouldn't mind a June launch.  Wasn't there a rumor that Nintendo has already started manafacturing?

[Artimus]

IGN already debunked this rumour. Final dev kits don't come out until June, remember.

[Kairon]

We shouldn't limit ourselves to considering a June launch. Someone else suggested August, and that's still a summer launch to me and still earlier than the PS3.

And let's not forget the tiering of the launch. Previous statements suggested a 14 week roll-out across the three major territories, meaning a little more than 3 months from Japan/US to Europe.

For example, perhaps the Rev could launch in Japan in August, the month N64 launched in japan I think. Then it could come out stateside late September or early October. This is much less mind-stretching than the Apple-like Launch-1-month-after-E3. Or consider a July date if you want.

Another interesting factor in this is Zelda : TP. In order for it to be effective as a lunch title, it'll have to come out no more than 2 months before the Rev at the earliest.

Ah, but was TP really delayed till November? Or is that just our assumption given that we have heard November as a possible Rev Launch, and tied that in with TP's rev-functionality?

Hmmm... Spong seems to be the only site strongly behind the June/Summer Rev Launch possibility. But then again, the majority of the November launch rumors stem only from the "before Thanksgiving" statement Iwata made, which still leaves room for debate.

Oh, and I've heard that final XBox 360 dev kits only came out 2 months before the 360 launched. Is this true? Either way, surely the Rev development is still faster given the reports that programming for the Rev is almost exactly like programming for the GC, no ramp-up-time at all, unlike the 360 and PS3's multiple cores and processors and new technology and whatnot.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com  

[Spak-Spang]

IGN doesn't know everything.  They are going by information that final development kits won't be out till June...which several have explained aren't 100% needed to develop a full game...and IGN is going by hearsay from third party developers.

Now those 3rd party developers are more legit source...however the news about Sony delaying is relatively new...if Nintendo feels it can pull off an early launch it may announce something soon and began to prep 3rd party developers for such a launch.  

There are several ways Nintendo could do this.

1)Ship the final kits early.
2)Send detailed specs of the Revolution to developers so they know what better to expect while optimizing their games.
3)Release with more 1st person games and less 3rd party.  Letting the 3rd party support carry Nintendo's Holiday season instead of additional 1st party games.  (Launch 5 games at launch and plan next games released for January...then leave a big opportunity for 3rd parties to own Christmas sales.)

[The Omen]

Quote
IGN already debunked this rumour. Final dev kits don't come out until June, remember.

True, but I also keep hearing the Rev kits are suped up Gamecubes, which every 3rd party is already familar with.  Going with the graphics don't mean everything mantra from Nintendo, would it be crazy to have all games in development for Rev, but bound by secrecy?  Would it surprise anyone if Nintendo had 2 titles available for a June launch?  It wouldn't surprise me.  Mario 128 has been in development for over 2 years.  You're teloling me Nintendodogs Rev couldn't be a June launch title?  I disagree.  And remember, launching early gives you the next 5 motnhs to build a library.  Releasing against Sony immediately splits the potential users in  half, at the very least, and would seriously kill any momentum.

I'm not saying it's likely, but I am saying it's aggresive and, at least to me, the right move..  

[Kairon]

Another factor will be how online ready Nintendo is. The DS wifi is up and running, but its still not *quite* there yet.

Also, whether the Rev will have any wifi-support on the software side at launch...

And then again we have to consider that SSBM rev job listing last October, talking about a June date at which they'd...I'm not sure of the translation, at which point the job listing would expire?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Spak-Spang]

So true.

What does the lack of games in June matter, if by November you have the same more more games at launch than Sony?  

By the time June comes around Xbox 360s will be plentiful to buy.  If someone hasn't bought it, then its because they want to wait and see what is offered on the other systems, or waiting for that killer game.

Nintendo could probably have:

Mario Revolution
Metroid Revolution

as launch titles by June, and perhaps even

Smash Brothers Revolution.

But hey, lets not limit our early launch discussion to June...because that does seem highly unlikely.  However, August seems more than doable...it seems practically a nobrainer.

[Ian Sane]

"Release with more 1st person games and less 3rd party. Letting the 3rd party support carry Nintendo's Holiday season instead of additional 1st party games. (Launch 5 games at launch and plan next games released for January...then leave a big opportunity for 3rd parties to own Christmas sales.)"

I don't like this idea.  Relying on third parties is just too risky because third parties are inconsistent.  Nintendo relied on third parties for the American DS launch and it sucked monkey nuts.  If they do this then the big Rev Christmas title will be a half-assed port of Madden.  It would be a little different if Nintendo was the market leader and could thus assume that third parties will take the Rev seriously.  But initial third party support for less popular consoles isn't usually very hot.  Typically you get a few quick 'n' dirty ports to capitalize on the new userbase starved for games but the really good third party support appears later on.

The plan might work okay though if those first party launch titles are good enough for them to continue to be popular sellers into Christmas.  Not many people would buy all five games at launch so it might just work out that each person just ends up saving at least one of those titles for Christmas, due to lack of time and/or funds more than anything else.

I'm thinking September sounds like a good time to launch.

[Smash_Brother]

An earlier launch would be ideal.

Leaving Sony to launch last will give Nintendo a STRONG edge.

[Spak-Spang]

Ian I am talking about 5 big launch games from Nintendo that would obviously be big enough to sell through Christmas.  

The DS didn't have what I am describing.  The DS didn't have 5 solid first person games at launch...they very rushed 3rd party games.  

So if Nintendo launched June or August with 3-5 great first party games, then they would pretty much be launching a first party game for each month.  If Metroid for Revolution can be as solid as Metroid Hunters that would be Nintendo's "Halo" for the hardcore gamers.  

Now, 3rd parties could have a few extra months to polish there games before Christmas and not have to worry about the big N hording all the profits with their stellar games.  

Finally, remember Nintendo's virtual system is still going to be up and running with a strong backlog of games for gamers to buy.  And I understand you don't think Nintendo should rely or even consider those as "new" games for the Revolution.  But, you have to admit that service will be a huge draw for several gamers that plan to spend more money on that service than on new Revolution games.

[zakkiel]

Anyone who thinks the Rev will be out before October is setting him/herself up for major disappointment.  

[jasonditz]

I think a Japan launch in June would be more important than a north american launch. The Japanese market is likely to be more receptive to the system early on, most of the key developers we want on board are Japanese, and since the Xbox360 is a non-player in Japan it basically gives them the nextgen market in Japan all to themselves for several months.  

[The Omen]

Quote
Finally, remember Nintendo's virtual system is still going to be up and running with a strong backlog of games for gamers to buy. And I understand you don't think Nintendo should rely or even consider those as "new" games for the Revolution. But, you have to admit that service will be a huge draw for several gamers that plan to spend more money on that service than on new Revolution games.

Great point!  Having hundreds of games available at launch is a huge attraction.

Quote
Anyone who thinks the Rev will be out before October is setting him/herself up for major disappointment.

Thanks...but nobody here said they expect it, or actually thinks it has a good chance to happen...just that it would be a great coup d'état.

[IceCold]

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
I'd just like to go on record that if the Rev launched as late as October or November, I would feel a solid disappointment with Nintendo.

The Rev doesn't have fickle and cranky bleeding edge built-from-scrath technology like the PS3. It should be easy to manufacture, easy to launch earlier.

The Rev is purported to be very easy to develop on. If it's so easy, why does Nintendo need 1.5 years (starting from E3 2005) to create software for it? If you could start development on GC Dev kits, why shouldn't third parties be in the same boat?

Sorry, but I'd MUCH rather have polished and complete games in November rather than rushed and gimmick games in June. Aren't you the one who came down so hard on Nintendo for rushing Wind Waker? Then I'd expect you to realise that for the launch games to truly be memorable, they need the extra time. This rings even more true now that they're implementing radically different ideas into the games with the new controller. Balancing, polishing, and making it the best experience possible should take precedence.

And, before Ian says it, Nintendo just can't rely on the Virtual Console. They can't..

[The Omen]

Quote
And, before Ian says it, Nintendo just can't rely on the Virtual Console. They can't..

They wouldn't need to rely on it...it enhances the value of the purchase.  Lets say Nintendo announces tomorrow that the console will release in June.  That gives 3rd parties 3 months to ready games from scratch(although I believe they have been working on them for a month or two already).  That's definitely do-able.  It makes E3 a huge bash, even moreso since the console will launch right after it.  Add into this Nintendo's mysteriously absent games in recent years, such as Mario 128, Mother or a Pikmin.  You then add in the virtual console, and to me, that is definitely a console I would consider purchasing.  

If I'm waiting all this time for the PS3, and the Rev releases at the same time, I wouldn't change my mind when given a choice.  Give me a 5 month window, and I would be much more inclined to give the Rev a go.  

It's simple, really: In between the 360 and the PS3 is the most enviable position to be in.  You outshine the 'older' console, and set off a pre-emptive strike against the last console.  You gain market share because there are only two consoles available for 5-6 months before the PS3 hits.  You reach your second cycle of games as the PS3 hits with it's first, which will be less polished.  People get acclimated to this new experience of the Rev, and they like it.  You give them downloads of old games, and the nostalgia hits.  Suddenly, they don't really need Sony anymore.   And suddenly, Nintendo is in prime position this generation.  

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
I'd just like to go on record that if the Rev launched as late as October or November, I would feel a solid disappointment with Nintendo.

The Rev doesn't have fickle and cranky bleeding edge built-from-scrath technology like the PS3. It should be easy to manufacture, easy to launch earlier.

The Rev is purported to be very easy to develop on. If it's so easy, why does Nintendo need 1.5 years (starting from E3 2005) to create software for it? If you could start development on GC Dev kits, why shouldn't third parties be in the same boat?

Sorry, but I'd MUCH rather have polished and complete games in November rather than rushed and sparkling innovation games in June. Aren't you the one who came down so hard on Nintendo for rushing Wind Waker? Then I'd expect you to realise that for the launch games to truly be memorable, they need the extra time. This rings even more true now that they're implementing radically different ideas into the games with the new controller. Balancing, polishing, and making it the best experience possible should take precedence.

And, before Ian says it, Nintendo just can't rely on the Virtual Console. They can't..

You misunderstand me Ice Cold. I am not saying that the games should be rushed to accomodate an early launch. I am saying that they SHOULD be ready to launch earlier than October precisely because of the qualities Nintendo has attributed to the Revolution. Simpler hardware, cheaper development, easier development, innovation being what's most important rather than "This game will only be good if it looks better than that game that plays just like it."

The simplicity of the Rev hardware means that manufacturing it should NOT be a problem when Nintendo decides to. The easy development structure, along with the known GC-identical programming feel means that Nintendo should've started preliminary work on launch titles as far back as E3 2005. The easy development structure means that games that should've taken 12 months should only take 9. (Keep in mind, Rogue Leader was developed in 9 months) The no-learning-curve development means third parties, experts at current gen dev, should be capable of pulling that sort of schedule too.

Unless, of course, Nintendo is lying about the Rev's fast and easy development. I mean heck, they say that the Rev should be an easier platform to develop for, yet they can't ready games in time for launch? This is not about Mario Revolution, no it is NOT actually about wanting a game before it's ready. This is about whether Nintendo and third parties will have simple-concept-easy-development-great-appeal titles like Trauma Center Revolution, Mario Paint Revolution, Orchestra Conductor, Fish with Granpa, Cooking Mama Rev or whatever on the Revolution. Brain Training DS took 10 people 4 months to make. I want to see that sort of accomplishment on the Rev Launch software.

This is not about rushing games, this is about whether the development cycle for games,even low-content-simple-concept games like above, will really be shortened like Nintendo has said it will be.

Nintendo's made a promise of easy software development. Will I have to wait for second-or-third generation games for them to fulfill that promise or can they show me their earnestness right here and now?

For example, Majora's Mask was said to "save time" by using the OoT engine. Yet it still came out...what, 2 years AFTER OoT?!?! Look, it's cool that you shaved 6 months off the dev time, but it was too little, too late.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold

Then I'd expect you to realise that for the launch games to truly be memorable, they need the extra time.

Screw launch games. Like I told Ian, we should talk Launch WINDOW and also the window after the Honeymoon period is over. Everything sells out at launch, you only need a truly breakout game a month or two later. Smash bros. wasn't a launch title. Neither was Halo if I recall. The PS2 had a bunch of mediocre stuff for a long time too. And does anyone even care about PD0 anymore?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com