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« on: December 29, 2003, 04:56:13 AM »
Here is a little something that a lot of you aren't realizing. I know this won't change any deep set opinions, but hear me out.
Ninty is a very conservative busniess. The video game world (heck, the technology world as a whole) is extremely volatile. Just because a few select companies are going though some good times doesn't mean that aggressive expansion (buying developers, expanding into dangerous territory that may not net a return) is a good thing. A lot of publishers and developers have done this and are hurting badly because of it (Sega most notably, but also 3DO, Midway, Sierra, and a lot of others). This is the way it has always been, and probably always will be.
Ninty's strategy is to maxamize return. You don't have to have the largest userbase, most product, or newest technology to do this. This is especially the case when you are dealing with competetors with extremely deep pockets that are pretty much willing to do market studies for you. In the case of "online gaming" the investment right now does not generate enough return to be worthwhile. Only a few 3rd parties have tested the online waters with console games (outside of the Microsoft funded "live exclusives"- an additional investment that generates no return).
The online strategy is akin to the dotcom crazy days. Everyone (developers) has plans for services and great ideas- but absolutly no one knows how to make those investments pay off. A conservative "wait and see" approach is only good busniess. I'm not saying that I'm thrilled with the prospect- because yeah, it would be fun to take Animal Crossing online but there wouldn't be a busniess model behind it, and from MS's live (and even Sega's Dreamcast) experiement only a small minority would even take advantage of it (say animal crossing sold 100,000 copies- that's only 5,000 users).
And incidently- the downside to suing ROM carts as a storage medium is publishing cost; not storage space as frequently mentioned. Just about any PSX game could be delivered in 64MB. Remember, you only have a few MB of video ram you are able to fill at a time (1MB in PSX, if I'm not mistaken). In fact, it's a dream of publishers to be able to publish downloadable games (Probably where MS is trying to eventually go with Live actually), and the size of games will have to accommidate that. Blame publishers for not wanting to pony up another dollar or so to publish on the N64, not the developers for not being able to work with a storage meduim. (If you want to blame Nintendo for anything on the N64, blame them for skimping on the ram). In any case- that ship sailed long ago.