Don't Count Your Pikmin Before They Sprout

Nintendo’s performance at E3 is certainly something about which fans can get excited, but don’t assume a strong E3 is any indication of a company’s success. One need only look back to last year’s E3 where Sega was the consensus choice for best of show and Sony was criticized for lackluster PS2 software. 12 months later, Sega is out of the hardware business (although shaping up to be a dominant and influential 3rd party developer) and Sony has shipped over 10 million PS2s worldwide (of course software sales have remained mediocre). Still, the bottom line is that Sega “won” E3 2000 and Sony “lost” (yes, some could say Nintendo lost, but they weren’t really involved in the next-generation console war yet) and the 2 companies fortunes have gone in drastically different directions.

So then am I saying Nintendo will go the route of Sega in the next couple of years? Of course not, Nintendo and Sega’s financial situations have been drastically different over the last few years. Nintendo has been in a far better position to compete than Sega since the beginnings of the 32/64-bit console war. The main idea to take away is that a good E3 does not guarantee strong sales over the next year. Furthermore, even if Nintendo does have a strong launch (which I personally think it will), Holiday 2001 only marks the beginning of this new next-generation console war. This will be the first of probably 4 or 5 such Holiday battles and one victory will not necessarily carry over to the next year.

Following a similar line of thought, just because Microsoft had a particularly disappointing showing at E3 does not mean that they should be counted out of the next-generation hardware race. Microsoft has already too many resources into the Xbox to not be in for the long haul. While the Xbox faces stiff competition this Fall and, judging by their performance at E3 2001, may very well find itself in last place by the end of 2001, don’t think that Microsoft will call it quits. Sure Mr. Gates and company are new to the console business, but they understand that playing the console game is a long term proposition and if the Xbox struggles in the beginning, they will do everything in their power to right their ship.

This upcoming console war may very well shape up to the be the closest in history. While many seem to think that there is only room for 2 major players, this thought says nothing of how close the players will be in this generation. The 16-bit era spawned the closest console war in the history of the industry, with the SNES ultimately winning the war thanks to a strong showing in the latter parts of the console’s lifecycle. With 3 determined players in this upcoming war, there’s a good chance that a winner will not be decided until the very end. Even determining a loser may prove to be difficult until the end of the consoles’ lifecycles.

Several factors could swing the battle in the direction of any console. For example, Sony’s Playstation2 software could quickly look inferior to the titles on Nintendo and Microsoft’s consoles which are by all accounts, much easier to program for. However, after 2 or 3 years, PS2 developers could finally come to grips with the system and utilize the system’s full potential. Also, if broadband gaming becomes a practical reality in this generation, the Xbox will have a step up on the other 2 consoles with its out-of-the-box hard drive and broadband readiness. Another potential that may only be realized later in the Xbox’s life is the creative use of the hard drive. Nintendo had previously touted the possibilities of a rewritable storage medium on a console, and Xbox developers could tap into these possibilities down the road. As for GameCube, the ability to connect with the Gameboy Advance could be a major advantage for Nintendo once the potential for this connectivity is realized. These are but a few of the factors that could change the position of the consoles at any point in the next 5 or so years.

Things are certainly more interesting after E3 2001, but this is hardly the time to be proclaiming a winner in the next-generation console war. Media, analysts, and executives may make bold predictions about the outcome of the war, but the truth is that there are far too many unknowns in the future to say anything definitive about a war that is likely to last for about the next 5 years. Experts should be able to determine an early front runner or a favorite, but things can change very quickly in the gaming industry. Just rewind 1 year and you’ll see Sega desperately pushing the Dreamcast, Xbox building hype as the PS2 killer, the PS2 as the jagged wonder, and Nintendo insisting that the N64 still had plenty of life left in it. Go back 2 years and Sega is impressing gamers with cutting-edge software, Microsoft is providing WindowsCE to Sega but otherwise staying outside of the console business, Sony has just announced the juggernaut that is the PS2 (look at the ducks!), and Nintendo has promised that the Dolphin will be available by the end of 2000 and Donkey Kong 64 would spur the N64 into a late life renaissance. Jump back 5 years, and Sega Saturn is working hard to keep up with the Playstation, Microsoft is not even in the console picture, Sony is picking up momentum on its first entrant in the console market, and Nintendo’s N64 looks to revolutionize gaming and leave Sony and Sega in the dust with Mario 64 and the games of the “Dream Team”.

Suffice it to say, a lot can happen during a console war and this upcoming one will likely not be the exception to the rule. If anything, even more can happen with 3 major players in the game. Whatever the case, it should be a great ride with the gamer ultimately coming out on top. Remember, competition is good for the industry and forces developers to work that much harder to out do the other guy. And if you’re a steadfast Nintendo loyalist, take heart in this because tough competition will only spur Nintendo to make their games that much better. Nintendo learned several lessons from the shortcomings of the N64 and the GameCube has only benefited from them. If they find themselves in a heated battle, you can be sure that Nintendo will push their already exceptionally talented development teams to create even more stellar software. Whatever the end result, you as a Nintendo gamer can expect great things on the GameCube...what more could you ask for?

*Thanks to Duncan and Windy from chat for helping with the title. See, it pays to hang out in Planet Chat!*