To the surprise of no one and excitement of everyone, a new Nintendo Direct is happening this Wednesday morning, January 14. Some things are pretty much a lock – we’re going to get Majora’s Mask 3D and we’re going to get New 3DS talk for sure. But what about the rest of the announcements? That’s where I come in.

For these Nintendo Direct predictions, I’m dividing them into five categories: Definitely, Probably, Maybe, Probably Not, and Definitely Not. Leave your predictions in the comments below – we’d love to hear them.

Definitely:

New 3DS Release Date and Price

Australia and Japan already have the New 3DS, and some Europeans already have the special Club Nintendo edition. Everyone knows the New 3DS is coming and coming soon to North America, and Nintendo likely doesn’t want too wait too long to release this when so many potential system owners are saying, “I’ll just wait for the New 3DS.” Late January is a fun idea, but mid-February is more realistic. As for price, $169.99 for New 3DS and $199.99 for New 3DS XL – replacing the original models fully.

The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask 3D Release Date

This game was announced for the early part of the year, has had a complete box art and ESRB rating for some time, and has a limited edition bundle announced and sold out. Okay, so maybe those are not all the best reasons, but this won’t be out later than March. The New 3DS is definitely coming out in the next month or two and it needs a launch game. It’s not going to be Xenoblade and Monster Hunter will not cut it for a Western audience. If I was a betting man, I would say that Majora’s Mask and the New 3DS come out on February 13 – exactly one month from this writing (also, check out Neal’s editorial where he discusses exactly this).

Kirby and the Rainbow Curse/Code Name S.T.E.A.M/Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate/Mario Maker Trailer

Kirby will likely get a game overview trailer, S.T.E.A.M. will likely get some New 3DS support and characters revealed, Monster Hunter will probably get its New 3DS features detailed, and Mario Maker will probably see the full reveal of its online modes. Either way, these games will show up somewhere.

Another eShop Indie Reel

This one speaks for itself. Lots of independent games will surely be shown, as always.

Probably:

Mario vs. Donkey Kong/eShop Announcements

We’re just about due for another first-party eShop game on Wii U and we know this one exists. January/February makes sense for this one. Another announcement of a Nintendo-published eShop game seems to make sense too.

Splatoon

This game is aiming for a spring release, and Nintendo needs to discuss this game a little more today for April or May to be more believable. The details they announce probably won’t be too crazy, though we’ll see a better picture of the game for sure.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3DS/Xenoblade Chronicles X

You’re not going to get one of these without the other, and there isn’t a better time to show off Xenoblade Chronicles 3DS than with the full reveal of the New 3DS. Don’t expect we’ll get much from Xenoblade Chronicles X for a few months, but a trailer is likely. Nintendo is also probably going to release the 3DS game earlier than the Wii U game to give people an opportunity to play one and then get excited for the other.

Amiibo in Captain Toad/Other Games

The support in Captain Toad should probably be ready about now. Maybe it unlocks new power-ups or levels? They will probably detail Amiibo usage in other games too.

Yoshi's Wooly World Release Date

There's a solid chance of us getting a date alongside a trailer for this. It seems like a good April/May release.

Maybe:

Game Freak’s New Game

A recent story came out that Game Freak is getting ready to announce their new game to the world, and this might be the time to do so. I hope it’s another cool non-Pokémon game.

Mewtwo

Nintendo is probably going to wait until Mewtwo is ready to release before showing him off in a Nintendo Direct, but the possibility for Mewtwo discussion now exists.

Fossil Fighters: Frontier

This seems like a good spring or summer game, though it’s up in the air what Nintendo’s plan with this is either. They simply haven’t shown off much of the localization.

Yokai Watch

This is definitely coming this year to North America, but there’s a chance Level-5 and Nintendo wait until the next Nintendo Direct to fully unveil this unless the game comes out before April.

Zelda Wii U Talk

Until we get past E3, all Zelda Wii U Nintendo Direct talk has a likelihood of “maybe”. It’d be nice if they show off some approach to multiplayer and it’d be nice if they explain how dungeons work, but there’s not a ton to say this early on.

Mario Party 10

It might get a trailer now, but it’s doubtful we’re seeing this game again for a few months. Still, it’s possible.

Probably Not:

Star Fox Wii U

This probably isn’t the time to show off Star Fox. In a few months, sure, but now seems a bit early for that game.

Pokémon

Unless it’s an off-year, Pokémon XZ and YZ is happening in 2015. However, announcing it now wouldn’t really do that much good when there are so many Nintendo games to focus on right now. Either other games would diminish Pokémon’s impact or Pokémon would diminish the potential impact of other announcements. The pre-E3 calm is a better announcement period for this game.

Devil’s Third

As you may remember, it was said recently that Devil’s Third is almost done. Now could be a decent time for a trailer, though again, it seems too early.

Definitely Not:

Mario Kart 8 Animal Crossing DLC

There’s going to be a late April or early May Nintendo Direct. That’s when you see more of this.

Animal Crossing Wii U

This is the last huge established series Nintendo has to put on Wii U. Either the system is dying next year or this is the big 2016 release. Regardless of whether it comes out this year or next, this is an E3-level announcement.

Project Guard/Project Giant Robot

It just doesn’t make sense for these to get the spotlight unless they’re coming out very soon. Next Nintendo Direct is when we should see more of this.

Metroid 3DS/Wii U

No.