Realistic prediction, I honestly truly believe this thing will sell 80-90 million easy.
Modest Prediction, this thing is going to sell at least 50 million no question.
Prediction based on gut feeling and wishful thinking depending on news still to be released: 155 million, a slight stretch but doable.
There is no way this thing does worse than Game Cube, period. This already has hype. Game Cube had no hype, it was overshadowed by shortages and news reports of long ass lines of people still trying to get their hands on PS2. And it was overshadowed by the onslaught of Xbox marketing. This thing isn't even formally announced and it has hype and buzz building.
Wii U had not hype it had the opposite of hype, it's reveal had people either confused, or underwhelemed. It bombed, hard, because it was a mess from day one, no clear message, no real excuse to even exist. The only issue from Wii it "fixed" was HD which itself introduced a host of new issues.
Wii was not lightning in a bottle, it was NES 2.0, twenty years later. It had hype, it had nostalgia, it had a killer app, it was mass-market priced. The only thing it did wrong was being SD only and forcing waggle on games that would have been perfect if the Classic controller had been an option.
If Wii was lighting in a bottle, how did DS do so well? Everything in the market said it should have failed. It was a confusing product, it didn't fill a whole it only created a new platform that, at first, appeared to cater to a mass non-gaming market but then turned into the ultimate gaming platform, why? Because it did was gamers expected it to no more, no less.
That is the very formula that has made Playstation a success nearly without fault for 2 decades straight. You make the machine the gamers want, they buy it, game makers make games for it they sell rinse and repeat.
The Switch is the same formula it is Nintendo getting back to basics while recognizing the thing that saves them, their handheld market, is also the thing that is currently their downfall if they don't adapt. They finally woke up and realize their core market, that 80 million I keep quoting, doesn't care about specs, never have, they only care about a game player that plays games no bullshit.
N64 played games but was riddle with bullshit. First carts when the whole industry was going CD. This lost it major multimedia franchises not just Final Fantasy but GTA, Tomb Raider, Resident Evil (for the most part), Metal Gear, Silent Hill, those story based games that helped make Playstation the empire it is.
Oh but the factor we all forget about the **** of the N64, the elephant in the room, that godawful controller that you had to shell out TWICE as much money for as was typical of the day AND you had to have 4 of them. The downfall of the N64 was also the thing that saved Nintendo. I.e. that damn 4 player monstrosity. Sure *we* all loved the multiplayer games but what we failed to take into account, what Nintendo relied heavily upon despite our ignorance, was they could sell 1 person a console, get their friends to shell out the $50-60 bucks for their favorite color controller, buy *1* copy of the 4-player game and invite their friends over. So Nintendo could sell 30 million consoles but make their money off controllers and accessories, they didn't need 3rd parties they didn't need as many games. And when each game was $60-$70 they could milk their userbase for every penny. On the surface it backfired, it drove their core base away, but as perm pointed out to me many times over, no it didn't it just drove them to the handheld which was cheaper and everyone could buy the handheld, own their own personalized flavor, and only needed 1 friend with the console they could all share. The lack of true, deep, single player must have experiences led many to shift to the handheld or migrate to Sony.
Game Cube. Where do I start. No online was an issue but year 1, more than anything
Potential customer: These two play games *AND* dvd's, that one JUST plays games and mostly just Nintendo games, looks like PS2 has Nintendo-esque games anyways so there you have it, buy the DVD player that also plays games. Oh and it happens to be online too, sweet, oh and it plays PS1 games, and it ONLY costs $300 when that game only player cost $250, yeah no brainer.
Like it or not, accept it or not, not playing DVD's killed Game Cube period. Everything else Nintendo could have overcome, if they worked at it hell they barely sold just over 20 million and still managed to get dozens of quality, true exclusives that the other two missed out on. Nintendo did everything right with Game Cube except it didn't play DVD's., online wasn't a factor until near the end and by that point even if they had it it wouldn't have made a difference but not having the same size disk and not being able to play movies, at least for that first year or two out, cut off any chance it had.
So far, there is no major bullshit stopping people from looking at the Switch and going, why bother?
There is nothing holding it back. It might force you to use SD cards, well every single device that ISN'T made by Apple already does that, so what? Do you not own an SD card? Liar.
Battery life? This is not 1992 when you had to shell out cash for AA batteries. This is 2016/2017 where everyone, EVERYONE carries multiple devices and multiple charges on them at all times. Hell most devices charge using, USB, another port that not only does everything have, but this thing also supports itself. You take your Switch to the office, no need for a charge plug it into the USB of your PC, at the air port stick it into a wall charger, on a bus, why the HELL are you on a bus?
The people looking at this negative, the people who are saying this sucks or this will suck, I get the sense that most of them are the same people who just complain up front whenever a Playstation that doesn't bear the name Nintendo is announced and whenever a Nintendo machine that isn't just a Playstation that bears the name Nintendo they have to throw a fit.
The SNES was regarded as one of the greatest consoles of all time and that son of a bitch sold less than the much maligned Xbox 360 and the shameful PS3. And the hated PSP. And the supposedly not doing well 3DS. I guess people just like to bitch.
I honestly cannot think of 1 legit reason to be skeptical other than fear, irrational fear of whatever. Maybe Nintendo will find a way to Nintendo it up, but I doubt it, it seems to me they finally realized the truth, they have 1 userbase that easily equals if not exceeds their rivals if they could just tap into it right. I think they did that here. I could be wrong, we could all be wrong. These are just my insane ramblings for you all to ponder.
But regardless its just a toy. No matter how well it sells or doesn't sell at the end of the day IT IS JUST A TOY.
Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction) (Read 135120 times)
